As POET moves forward
posted on
Jul 16, 2017 11:34AM
So basically, POET does know what they are aiming to do in order to get the 4th pin in the thyristor to work in the Gallium Arsenide platform (BICFET), but they need funds and this goal of a monolithic integration is still slightly up in the air. This 4th pin seems to be the key to commerciallize the POET platform in the GAAs platform as a monolithic chip ---- when that happens, it will be huge; but POET cannot prioritize this platform as the best ROI in the short term. Now, perhaps a company with deeper pockets, resources, and time can help POET complete this last area -OR- there might be another brilliant way for them to assume the risk and share in this development with POET. POET is so very close in this platform that there is no point giving up. I do think someone will understand that and help POET.
The InP platform is basically ready for commercialization and also provides a 'disruptive' technology and ROI much sooner than the other platform. POET has said that they can go alone on this platform, but they are still open to partner non-dilutively here as well. I feel that POET should run hard with this platform and make inroads into the market while the GAAs platform works out its kinks. Why? The GAAs platform is not running at the commercial wavelength and there is still more tweaking to do to get that there. More tweaking, means more time. More time means more money needed; hence, the need of a non-dilutive partner.
From the presentation, I do feel that POET knows where it is at and has done a lot of hard work to allow these opportunities to continue. David L. from the Board of Directors, in his experience, feels that it is not a challenge to get POET to $50 million revenue in about 2 years from now. Another thing to remember is that $50 million will be sold at 'high margin' because POET will be disruptive in the InP area.
At this point in time, POET's opportunity could never be better, but money is an issue for the GAAs platform, but not the InP platform --- so, in the short term, the InP platform saves POET and provides a super growth opportunity as well. My understanding from the presentation is that the InP platform is integrated, so therefore, it is 'disruptive'. The cost savings for data centres wishing to purchase from POET is 'disruptive' to whom is supplying them now. So we can watch the revenue numbers as our guide of success from the InP platform as a measure of growing success for POET. Then the share price will take care of itself, because it is what the market only cares about. The GAAs side of POET has already been punished by the market and I conclude that the last financing was what those investors probably sniffed out, but were still willing to climb up with POET on the InP platform. All of the above is just opinion around some of the facts only. I do not claim to ever be a know it all.
Monolithic