AGM Impressions
posted on
Jun 23, 2018 11:55AM
I attended the meeting, and, for some perspective, have attended two other AGM's, not last years, but the two prior years.
What I think I'm going to type will not please everyone.
Overall, the meeting itself was as I thought it would be, but not as I hope it would be. Brightech is the guy that can give you more details relative to the science/tech part of this, I can only offer impressions on the main actors.
First, the meeting was very poorly attended - I think there were six "retail" shareholders there. A part of that, of course, is due to Webcasting and the like, but a part is to a current lack of enthusiasm (sometimes known as portfolio performance).
Suresh was his usual serious self, going through his presentation methodically, but thoroughly and, as always, professionally. He looks the part of the techie-type CEO (as opposed to a financial CEO, like PC). Thomas Mika looks every bit the part of securities salesman. Apparently, he has learned enough about POET's tech to be able to make presentations on his own, and so long as he's talking to tech investors rather than actual engineers, I'm sure he does fine.
You all heard the presentation, here's my view based on comments before and after the presentation, as well as the presentation.
The India deal - before the meeting, I asked our chairman whether that was dead at this point - he became noticeably uneasy at this question, hemmed and hawed some, but ultimately gave essentialy the same answer as did Suresh. My conclusion - a real longshot.
Wiill 2019 be the year of POET? Hard to say, but I did conclude, as I've felt and posted for quite some time here, it's not only a matter of when, but it's also a question of if. This was the part I was hopeful about - I wanted to come away feeling it was only a question of when. And, as an aside, no matter who says "we're close" on this board, that is merely opinion! My contention has been that the share price may well be a better indicator of who "close" we are than anything anyone says. Very smart people have been very wrong on a number of counts for a very long time here, and, as a result, expectations became, shall we say, "super-sized."
Suresh mentioned that's what's left on the interposer is "optimization." I believe we've heard that term and status before and hit what apparently was a stone wall.
I want everyone to remember that this remains a highly speculative situation. That's the key point, not all that discussion about stock options that held this board's attention for all too long in the last week or so. There remains a possibility of a multi-bagger from this point, and for that opportunity, we are paying in risk, and have been paying in risk for years.
It's quite amazing that compared to what we all thought was the unique aspect of this company (GaAs), we're on a very different focus. Think back to the derision this board held for that one writer that refused to believe that GaAs was the next huge thing, about to swoop in and destroy silicon which was about to be buried along with Moore's Law.
We need to get our tech finished and optimized in a form that can be mass-produced and sold before one or several other companies beat us to it. It can happen, but it's no sure thing.
Someone wrote a couple of days ago that he was sure the estimates given by the company as to when revenue would start rolling in were conservative. I am just as certain that those estimates are not conservative. This company would like to please its shareholders, I have no question about that. This company is trying its hardest to be successful, I have no question about that, and I think with Suresh at the top, we have the right guy, and likely have the techies to get it done, if anyone can.
So, bottom line, what I heard and the sense I got was in keeping with my own expectations, which I know are far more modest than most here. I have plenty of shares and would not buy more unless the price were to come down into the teens, US-wise. I would consider selling a small portion (10-15%) of my shares if the price got to $0.50 US or so.
Again, a disclaimer - the tech remains Greek to me, or sufficiently so that I would be very foolish to make any decisions (or even statements) based on my reading of technical stuff.
Good luck, everybody, there is still an element of luck left here, let's hope the next year brings us not only saleable products, but products that sell.