Re: Sure wish we had some update how things are going at PIC - this silence does take some patience :) - eom
posted on
Mar 27, 2019 02:02AM
The problem with most on this board over the years is that most tend to raise their expectations unrealistically for scheduled events involving POET. This, notwithstanding that, over the years, such events have rarely, if ever, delivered higher share prices for us. In fact, most of the time, the share price heads lower as a result. So, another event is in progress and nothing yet, sending us all into a funk.
A lot of that I ascribe to my assumption that much of the price action on this stock is as the result of posters/readers very own trading actions.
Look, based on what Mika said in the conference call a while back, it's not unreasonable to expect good news on the financing front, but not necessarily during this current conference. I continue to be skeptical of Mika's ability to non-dilutively finance the gap between now and the closing of the DL sale.
And where in the world did the concept of a "down-payment" on the deal come from? Generally, I don't think there is a down payment, although there may be a break-up fee if one side or the other fails to go through with the deal once a contract for sale is actually signed. So, if we find out there is a down payment, all the better, but I don't expect it.
And I wouldn't blame poor IR, it's just that other potential investors apparently don't think enough risk has been peeled back. Mika tried his damndest in the cc, and... nothing. CFO = salesman, for the most part, that's the case with developmental companies.
People talk about $1.00 and $2.00 and $5.00 and far more for this stock - well, okay, mabye so, but the stock doesn't get from .33 to $5.00 without there being significant risk, no matter how de-risked our techies say we are. The qualification of the interposer is not a done deal, nor is it a deal without material attendant risk. I would love it if it were already in the bag and there were no leaks of success (explaining the moribund share price), and one day soon, the share price would start climbing and not stop till it hit $5.00 or we were bought out for a sum such as that.
I don't think the true techies understand the stock market. I've seen enough of POET and many others similar enough to have a feel for the share price and risk, but I have no meaningful clue about the tech, other than the very general impressions I can gather by reading techie posts and comments thereon. My experience tells me that tech guys have about the same chance of being right or wrong as the share price movement does relative to forecasting the ultimate chance for success for POET. Sounds mutinous, but I think it's correct.
I await the interposer to be qualified and to be a hit, but not this week or next or the week after that - I don't know when we'll know, but I always figure some tweaking of the device will be necessary. Financing? A crap shoot.