Let's dream: A iPhone-like market entry could lead to a POET share price of >$400

Result upfront: Given otherwise conservative assumptions in this most optimistic market entry scenario - the current fair share price for POET could be a whopping $457, ~150x the current share price

Question: What would POET's share price look like if they achieved a perfect market introduction? I was very interested in figuring this out, so I did some thorough research with my friend ChatGPT. Important to state here that my analysis only comprises sales related to datacenters. Also, I cross-checked all the most relevant values, so they should be at least directionally right. Is it probable that this scenario will materialize? Probably not. Is it possible? Certainly.

Methodology:

• Estimating the optical transceiver market size (see detailed analysis below

  • using bottom-up analysis:

    • number of data centers built in a year * transceiver spent

  • and top-down methodology

    • summing up transceiver revenues of top n companies / cumulative market share of top n companies)

• Estimating market penetration of POET Technologies in the best case

  • Used market shares of revolutionary tech. products in the first 6 years after product launch

    • iPhone, Tesla Model 3, Nintendo Switch, Amazon Echo, Apple MacBook Air, Microsoft Azure

• Calculating revenues until 2030 using the market share computed above

• Calculating EBITDA using EBITDA margins

  • Taking into account initially negative margins

  • Scaling up to 25%, which is conservative compared to peers

• Discounting EBITDA to present value

  • Using discount factor of 25%, like Lisa Thompson did in latest POET report

• Applying EBITDA multiple to determine enterprise value

  • Semiconductors typical EBITDA multiple of ~21x used

• Determining share price

  • Dividing by currently total outstanding shares

Finally, "the sheet"

 https://preview.redd.it/lets-dream-a-iphone-like-market-entry-could-lead-to-a-poet-v0-rx7wc0ukovld1.png?width=1566&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcfdf9fccc18fb6bcb8d208eebd937c3c33da0cc