Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Poet SP estimation

Might be quite high, but with respect and thanks to the reddit member Tall-Temporary9079 let's share it here. 

At the end, we'll see what happens or not. 

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Flets-dream-a-iphone-like-market-entry-could-lead-to-a-poet-v0-rx7wc0ukovld1.png%3Fwidth%3D1566%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3Dbcfdf9fccc18fb6bcb8d208eebd937c3c33da0cc

 

Let's dream: A iPhone-like market entry could lead to a POET share price of >$400

Due Diligence
 

 

Result upfront: Given otherwise conservative assumptions in this most optimistic market entry scenario - the current fair share price for POET could be a whopping $457, ~150x the current share price

Question: What would POET's share price look like if they achieved a perfect market introduction? I was very interested in figuring this out, so I did some thorough research with my friend ChatGPT. Important to state here that my analysis only comprises sales related to datacenters. Also, I cross-checked all the most relevant values, so they should be at least directionally right. Is it probable that this scenario will materialize? Probably not. Is it possible? Certainly.

Methodology:

  • Estimating the optical transceiver market size (see detailed analysis below

    • using bottom-up analysis:

      • number of data centers built in a year * transceiver spent

    • and top-down methodology

      • summing up transceiver revenues of top n companies / cumulative market share of top n companies)

  • Estimating market penetration of POET Technologies in the best case

    • Used market shares of revolutionary tech. products in the first 6 years after product launch

      • iPhone, Tesla Model 3, Nintendo Switch, Amazon Echo, Apple MacBook Air, Microsoft Azure

  • Calculating revenues until 2030 using the market share computed above

  • Calculating EBITDA using EBITDA margins

    • Taking into account initially negative margins

    • Scaling up to 25%, which is conservative compared to peers

  • Discounting EBITDA to present value

    • Using discount factor of 25%, like Lisa Thompson did in latest POET report

  • Applying EBITDA multiple to determine enterprise value

    • Semiconductors typical EBITDA multiple of ~21x used

  • Determining share price

    • Dividing by currently total outstanding shares

Finally, "the sheet"

 

 https://preview.redd.it/lets-dream-a-iphone-like-market-entry-could-lead-to-a-poet-v0-rx7wc0ukovld1.png?width=1566&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcfdf9fccc18fb6bcb8d208eebd937c3c33da0cc

 

 

 

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