posted on
Feb 14, 2008 05:15AM
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Message: CONTRACT COMPANY/SIGNATURE OF 3Âș ROUND LICITATORIA OF AREAS HIDROCARBURĂFERAS
There are some possible answers for the PDP SP move:
1. The technical reason - the SP felt so much (~60-70%) and the reaction was very obvious. As soon as it covered a 50% up (from 6$ to 9$) the price can go back again.
2. The global reason. The subprime mess is taking a break, so the global markets made some good numbers.
3. There is a buyer for the PDP and this buyer is collecting shares on the open market. (Potentially, it is taking place in addition to a PP or some other kind of "behind the scene" deal).
What can I say?
1. Management made another move against its own company (sold at 6$ !!!). Yes, it could be some personal expence coverage like yours or lack of good financial advisor. As I mentioned before, it is quite possible taking into account the PDP investment record for 2007.
2. The SP in the absence of really good news (some 1000+ barrels wells drilled) will stay in 7$-10$ range. For 2007 the side trend was very popular (15-20$ range), and I can expect similar behavior for the beginning of 2008.
3. If there is the buyer, or global economy will recover fast, the SP could be 2-4$ higher - around 13 dollars. But only after the deal will be completed.
4. In other words, I am not expecting a full recover of the SP and very questionable about it - the oil price doesn't effect Argentina's business of PDP, they lost a lot of money in 2007, which will slow down the drilling program, the management is still the same and probably indicated so far: no deep analysis of situation was made.
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