Re: Longer and stronger than ever + where Kodiak is at now: good inputs
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 16, 2009 01:38PM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
This board is full of great thinkers - I haven't come across another Agora forum with as much smarts and consideration of the factors. Plus - thanks for the feedback.
I am not looking to the next NR - I would expect KXL to beaver away after all the drilling is done and put the best story possible out before the Toronto show. That will be the main test point for me. I am not expecting a large number on the 43-101 - generally companies start with a number and then add to it - but we are indeed expecting that 43-101 and it matters a lot that that happens.
I think what Kodiak is doing is establishing a list of "to-dos" and going performance-based - so can we count on them to do what they say. I think yes, and of course time will tell. Other companies may or may not issue more releases, but sometimes 1) they describe extension work that doesn't really change the picture a great deal (ONT has done this for years), or 2) there is smoke but no fire (some of the smaller strugglers). I don't need flashbulbs going off in my face but I definitely expect major progress by the March show.
I definitely detect anything but laziness. I have met and talked to many of the principals, not only at shows but on-site, and they are deadly keen to put all the disappointment behind them and us. Many of them are in the same boat as we are - investments painfully underwater. There is no doubt that we are clearing a sour taste from the past out of our mouths - mine included. But my impression is that these guys are serious about making it work.
They will indeed have to raise money again, but I don't think the dilution will be intolerable, and as the whole gold camp rises in prominence there may increasingly other ways to fund up that also maintain a better comfort level for us shareholders. Major mistakes were made in what I politely call the pre-Brian era, but we're here now and all our options are in the present, not the past. What counts is measurable progress by the Lake Shore model, if I can call it that. I went back in the Marketwire releases for them, and if they are a couple years ahead of us (they are doing mine building now) their meaty or significant press releases were once every 2-3 months. So no doubt the 6 month drought we went through this year was excessive. I will give them the benefit of the doubt on that one as it was during the time the company got professional at the top and the releases had to transition from front-loaded (announce before you know what you have) to back-loaded (announce when you know what you have and can back it up). That hiccup produced an inevitable delay, but that kind of change might take us from the Venture board to the big board. I'd love to see that.
As to the market, it gyrates all over the place without the minerals in the ground changing at all. Even Hemlo (I'll leave poor Lake Shore alone for a minute, but same story there) - Hemlo stock went from elation to depression and back to elation a dozen times, but the fact that it was a major and very lucrative gold camp never changed in all that time. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is long dead (the subprime crisis put a further stake through the EMH's heart). In addition, the float on this company is so tiny (5M shares?) that I've noticed that without intending it, me by my little self have moved the whole KXL market at times, just because I decided to do something on a Thursday instead of a Wednesday, and only because I missed the pickup at the dry cleaners. We've all seen that there have been some major sellers over time - and wouldn't I have loved to get out at $2.40 and back in again at 60 cents. We've been hawk-eyes on the price blips here, me included - but aside from the legitimate bits of grief we've shared here, sometimes major sellers have outside reasons to sell or buy unrelated to our story - in the recent months the inexplicable $800k OBV one-day down move and $1M OBV one-day up move were pretty ineffcient ways for investors to get out or in - they must likely have had other additional reasons, to do it.
Like many others I have been in touch with KXL management and I know they read and hear what we post here. We all expect change and improvements including how the communication is handled, and I have the strong impression (and expectation) that those changes will happen. I am not looking for drill holes or rig moves (as much as I enjoy those) but we are all expecting a serious foundation that justifies higher shareholder value, in my case by the March show and not later.
I hope I'm not annoying any of the sage and wise contributors to this forum. I take everything people write here seriously - even when we had the rant here a few weeks ago with ????????, I did go and immediately check out all of his assertions in great detail (they didn't pan out, but we can't afford not to know). My Kodiak stock has been a healing wound for me, a very serious one, and I know at least a few have had it worse than me. But I see not that much downside and a great deal more upside at this point, even if I have to wait a number of months for it, which I feel I would be foolish not to do. I am no Buffett (I wish!) but I try hard to follow his dictum of investing in things when they are unpopular and vice-versa, hard as that is to do - it goes against the grain of my ape-man psychology, if I can call it that. The Grasshopper and the Ant. I could be wrong, I could be right, and I learn daily from the analysis that people post here. Okay now I'll try to shut for up for a while - I have some dry cleaning to pick up anyways.
I'd be one heckuva lonely KXL investor without this board - thanks / cedar