Re: Market Call Tonight
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 25, 2008 04:32PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
Thanks for posting that JQ. Now he is basically stating the same things he said last time, the only difference is that we now have a 800mcf/day vertical frac done by talisman. One thing to note is, Forest Oil's frac came way on the other side of the qec acerage, and both with similar results for a vertical well. I believe that with that last well, we have derisked a lot of acres of land in between...which is something great for us.
Also, remember that he is giving a $6.40 target based on what he said last time, using $3500/acre for our land. That in my view is VERY VERY conservative, being that land in the NY shales is fetching $10,000 to $30,000 in some parts...even heard of $10,000 for unproven land. So with that said, if after everything is proved up, if we got $15,000/acre (still being conservative for proven land), we're looking at $30/share using today's O/S value.
One thing to note as well, is that the Barnett is increasing it's proven reserves every year and the recovery % is going up as well, at the start I think it was around 10% and now I've read up to 50% recovery in some parts. So it might be in the companies/shareholders best interest to hold out selling the company as things can get better with results/reserves as time goes on.
Thoughts?
Rocco:)