Well, we won't have any hard 'evidence' when it comes to how the SEA will cooperate with the industry, until either the legislators and the industry have had time to discuss the practicality of such a cooperation, or until the SEA at least have gotten their preliminary committee.

I believe both the industry and the legislators would want to lay down the basics of this cooperation as soon as possible, maybe allready next week, after the Quebec Oil & Gas Association have had time to do their review of the report. The finer details of this would more like be handled by the SEA's preliminary committee, with the actual assessment being done by the final committee when its ready.

But what seem to be pretty clear to me, is that both the industry (at least QEC) and the legislators (at least the environmental minister) is expecting the exploration of Utica we have seen so far, will continue under a new banner, "scientific research". This would explain the pretty selfsecure stance we got through Anela Dido.

While one could argue this has allways been a scientific research on how to achieve profitability by extracting shalegas in a both economical and environmental sustainable fashion, that is not the publics view. And all the cloak and daggers the last few days is all about handling a public opinion that are based on lack of knowledge, fear of the unknown and outragous propaganda. And the 'public opinion', or at least how its portraited by activists and the media, is that shalegas is the devils way of ruining their lives with previously unknown efficiency. And the children, think of the children! But I digress.

Activists claim 'the public' want a moratorium. This is obviously a lie. The 'public' might say they want a moratorium, but thats only because thats what they are told is the right opinion to have. What the public really want is to continue to enjoy a good health, in the degree thats possible today, have a job that can support their family and have a relative sense of security. If the public are being told that shalegas robs them of all these rights, and that a moratorium is the key to lifepreservation, then a moratorium is what they will demand. But only activists with their own agenda want a moratorium.

In reality, a moratorium would be the equilant of peeing in your pants to stay warm. If exploration, and inherently the increase of data to evaluate the shalegasindustry, was brought to a complete stop, it would either stay that way forever or start up again at a later point with the exact same lack of data as when the moratorium was put in effect. If we get anything out of the BAPE-report, its that.
What you'd lose in the meantime would be investors, potential revenue, potential jobs and possibly quite a few current jobs as well. How casually this activist (from 19:50) speaks of local entrepreneurs lose their business, their employees lose their jobs and inherently the investors lose their money, makes me wonder what is really the activists motivation to stop the shalegasindustry. Its obviously not due to their interest in others.

But this dilemma is a good thing for Questerre. If the only option to evaluate the shalegasindustry, is for the shalegasindustry to continue with what they are doing, though with a SEA riding their back, there is no reason to believe that this will provide a big downside for the company in terms of delays or otherwise. We shouldn't kid ourselfs to believe it will be entirely the same as before, but truth be told, the industry is just as eager for a change in how things are done anyways. An interesting point is that from now on, the government not only want the industry to explore the Utica, as they have for revenue- and jobcreation-reasons, they need the industry to continue their exploration. If they don't, the government and especially the ministry of environment, can not do the job they have promised their voters the last days. At least this tells me something about what degree of willingness to cooperate with the industry we can expect in the time to come. And from what I gather from others with more insight in Quebecs political powerstruggles, the ruling parties have no interest in letting the next government get the success that comes with the SEA finishing their work, paving the way for a real economical lifesaver for the state.

I actually think the industry will be the one that sets the pace, not the government. The industry haven't exactly moved with lightning speed as it is either. And even though the government emphasize that nothing, drilling or fracking, will be done without the approval of the locals, government or whatnot, thats not really different from how it is now. Its not like the industry can just start drilling somewhere, or just fracture the well whenever they want. Binnion has several times mentioned the huge administration they have to go through for each new well, due to the old mining legislation they are under.
I guess for each negative view, there could be a positive one, but how analysts can see a new legislation for hydrocarbons as something negative, when the industry itself have noted that the demand for a industry-specific legislation is one of the biggest factors when it comes to their future dedication to the region, is beyond me.

We can safely assume that the "for scientific research purposes"-label will be applied to all the industrys fracking in the time to come, both because the label is a necessity due to the hostile political environment that has been created against shalegas, and because these frackings will be researched by the coming SEA.

We can also safely assume that new wells will be approved, since thats clear from Pierre Arcand's statements, and those will also be a part of the SEA's evaluations.

And his alibi for saying that? I quote the BAPE-report itself:

"The environment ministry should authorize shale-gas exploration and production in order to examine environmental issues associated with those activities."

Sounds like a moratorium de facto right there, eh?