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Message: Re: How long to 15 NOK?

May 03, 2011 03:12PM

Being an investor for over 6 years now, I have seen some crazy things for QEC. It's the most volatile stock I hold, by a long shot lol. I was buying this down to $0.40 to average down from $0.50-0.60 range back in early 2008. Then forest annouces a small vertical well with 1mmcf/d and it shoots to $6. I don't care if gas was $13 back then, it was just a single well and still held tons of risk.

Anyway, it's been up to those $4-5 levels twice, and each time it comes with the release of a horizontal. Last time it was St. Ed and it went drastically up...usually gaps up a dollar or more and then rises.

Now to say should you buy or not, that's not my place. We're all different ages and our investment philosophy will differ as well.

Right now Talisman is looking to secure the fracing equipment for this summer, Canbrium the same for 2 of their wells. It really doesn't take much to move a stock with a Beta of over 3. You have to ask why you've bought it in the first place.

Shale has been taking a hit from environmentalists, but whatever they can't stop it. Nobody government is going to stop shale gas from moving forward. China and India are wetting their lips thinking about shale and moving it forward. I'm not going to talk about safety of drilling, it's record speaks highly with a few bad apples...like any industry. The BAPE was good at calming people down. You give them a bone and let science do the talking. If you read the QEC annual report, they are waiting for these short term regulations to come into place and see how this committee will move forward. They still have plans to do pilots around St. Ed, but are waiting on the results of these next two horizontals.

Frankly if you stop to think for a moment about what's different, not much really. The only difference is going through more people for permits, which isn't going to stop them. We get some nice results from two horizontals and we're flying high again.

If I knew of a jr company with this much land and potential coming up, I'd be in it like crazy...but I don't. They've already proven some solid results and it will only get better.

It all boils down to your timeline, plain and simple. Funny how support is rising for shale gas in Quebec based on the MAGS site since the BAPE...people just need to be educated and that's what we are doing. Activities are moving forward but under a new banner of the SEA.

Me buying here is averaging up because I was lucky to get in a long time ago, but I have been waiting a long long time still. Waiting a few more is no big deal for me.

TLM I think has been very active because the utica is a solid place to drill. They know this. NG prices are low and will probably stay low and utica with it's infrastructuce, GazMetro willing to and wanting to build more...get more for it's gas then other shales, and not to mention it's a sweet gas ready to sell right when it's drilled. Lots going for it and they'll play along with whatever they have too. Not many shales can provide what Quebec can. These are business people after all running companies...not going to get mad like a 4 year old on a playground and run away (which I have to say I thought they might)...they proved a lot to me with their effort here so this is good.

If I have learned anything in my 8 years of investing in the markets...it's that I make money when I buy in days like this. When nobody cares and it's super cheap to it's potential. This isn't a lottery case like it was 3 years ago. We actually have lots going for us including some amazing flow rates...timeline might be extended a bit, but what can you do. Like I said, you make money by buying at the bottom...but of course, believe in what you are buying or you'll get upset during the down times. I used to lose sleep as an investor early on, but things always pan out when you have patience...in my experiences anyway.


May 03, 2011 04:06PM
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May 03, 2011 04:21PM

May 04, 2011 05:11PM
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