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Message: A few thoughts re Eastern Hepalink etc

Hi fouremm and others.

SanFran, thanks for clarifying my Ken Lebioda perception as a shift in presentation approaches. Too bad!

From my perspective there are 2 broad areas of risk with this company;

  1. Science - Over the past 3 years we have learned a considerable body of knowledge about the science from very extensive post hoc analysis (things like the Emerald Logic multivariate work, etc) in terms of the MOA of apabetalone. Thank heavens for BDAZ translating these critical findings for us. We now know that apabetalone (rvx-208) works in a profound manner impacting multiple pathways including complement, inflammation, etc. RVX is now 5 months into dosing for BETonMACE. The orphan trial and kidney work is proceeding and the zen3694 prostate trial is moving forward. We have some of the best minds in science on the BoM steering commitee. The additional animal work may result in FDA approval of BoM for testing in the USA and even if it doesn't the BoM trial is proceeding. RVX (and Zenith) seem to be on the right epigenetic path vs. some competitors who have not had success to date with their epigenetic approaches and they do seem to have a significant "intellectual lead" that will take time for others to catch up to. So from my perspective I remain extremely positive and excited by the science. I am not seeing such positive developments at competitors and no one is attacking RVX's unique approaches.
  2. The business side - On the business side we are far less informed and to some extent certain things can't be disclosed (hence the need for a very high level of perceived trust is required in the CEO). There seems to be 2 concerns. One of course is the maturation of the $68,000,000 line of credit at Citi and secured by Eastern coming due in August of 2017 (and then the fear of Eastern scooping up all of the patents and other IP). The second issue is the funding of tirals.

So for what it is worth my opinion on the credit line and IP being taken by Eastern I do not believe this will happen (but anything can happen). First, it is in Eastern's best interest to renew the CL and perhaps increase it in order to keep the business moving. Second, if Eastern tries to take the IP both Hepalink and NGN will be in for a huge legal battle. Third, the company and it's scientists are intellectual property and they are the machine that makes this high potential power house of science tick. Without them you don't have much . Fourth, I believe that Don has about 7 million shares and Dr Wong has the same. Put this together with NGN and Hepalink and they have significant strength and then add in all of Don's insiders. Fifth, Don IMHO will find another partner this year (and in spite of my cynicism I think he is more advanced than what it seems) in a new regional deal (then the chess game becomes that more interesting for BP and Eastern). This new partner will have a large block of shares similar to Hepalink's 13% (approx guess). Six, my guess is that Eastern/Ken Dart has stakes in numerous plays like RVX and all he is waitng for is for one of them to hit the blockbuster break through. RVX could be the one. He does not need to take them over and lose years of time in court resulting in delays in apabetalone going to market. Seventh, from everything I've read in the past there is a very positive relationship between Dr Wong and Ken Dart.

On the second business concern, the funding of all of the various trials, IMHO the money will come...it will be there. There is far too much positive science that has been demonstrated over the past 8 years in particular and with momentum for epigenetics growing rapidly investors will step up to the plate. In addition some of these trials are very low cost relative to the multimillion dollar BP trials. If any one of the trials succeeds we will all see a profound shift in the perceived $ equity in both RVX and Zenith. It will be a game changer. Perhaps Don will be smart enough to try to dip into the huge grants that Kathleen Wynne's Liberal gov't is giving out to large BP multinationals in Ontario! So I am not one bit concerned about the financing side. It will happen and Don seems to be trying to spread power around as part of his chess game.

On the share price valuation side we've all discussued many influences such as low volume, concentration, lack of firm commitments in milestones, ineffective communications, poor management of the perceptions of risk, etc. We have a share price for a company in a phase 3 BETonMACE clinical trial while Hepalink is in at I believe $2.67 and a new partner to join soon. By any counts the stock should be trading at $5 to $6. I wonder how much of this devaluation is due to not getting the message (incredible news) out effectively?????

I was really pleased to read the posts about Don doing a better job at the Richmond Club. This says 2 things to me;

  1. When it comes to potential new shareholders he puts forth a better effort.
  2. When it comes to existings shareholders it's just his duty to report.

It seems to me that Don has a cockiness about him even though he seems like a low profile, somewhat introverted (positive from my perspective) presenter. He doesn't seem to care too much about the quality of the presentation. So a possible inference is that the presentation is somewhat irrelevant because for 15 years he has been able to bring in the money and keep the ship affloat and this will continue IMHO.

Perhaps if potential investors got the message that there is an extremely low risk of RVX NOT remaining a "going concern" it would dramatically boost the share price even before Don announces the next regional deal. Remember, there is not question that BP and others are watching and every new discovery and understanding of the MOA adds to the interest!

SanFran, I do agree with you that Don is (should be) a very busy man working on the next regional deal, other financial options, the IPO for Zenith, financing for Zenith trials. I have little doubt the $ will flow in.

Wow, I really did ramble on again ...apologies.

Bottom line, don't worry about $ flowing in...they will. Second, pay attention to the science and anything that BDAZ translates for us!

GLTA and everything IMHO.

Cheers

Toinv

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