Re: The Prescription....Nove... 15th
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 17, 2017 01:17PM
Chicago, thanks for pointing out the page 1 share count info. Didn’t even read the first page as I was interested in getting to the meat of the report (my bad). Obviously the report is on a post HL pp basis.
I don’t think there is any error between the basic and fully diluted share count and subsequent MC estimates, that is the way it is reported for all public companies. First off though it is a grey area, as you said, being an estimate. Secondly don’t forget with dilution in this regard comes cash to the company from the exercise of warrants etc which again contributes to the grey area. If and when there is exercise of the diluting instruments the market will make its own evaluation and adjustments. If the holders of these instruments start exercising them things must be going very well. I can only speak for myself but I will only be exercising my warrants if the company is sold and I see real potential for a good future revenue stream which is far greater than the face value of the warrants at the time of any such future deal.
Toinv you mentioned the small peak sales number. I agree that it is probably very conservative but it is only based on market share ranging from .5% of market to 2% of market at peak and then there is a 25% risk adjustment from that. I would say if Apabetalone is successful market share will be multiples of this estimate.
Since Beacon does not do retail I hope all their institutional clients are reading this and at least some are prompted to begin their own DD.