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Message: Beacon report

Toinv - I found it interesting that the projected one year out share price/market cap was about 1X's the projected peak sales of $1.8 billion. In order to get to that number a market penitration of just 2% was used. I did wonder whether one was a means to an end or an end to the means?

I did not notice the word "peak" in the report when referring to Lipitor's sales as that $10.8 billion seemed low to me. After doing a quick check it seems that in 2006 Lipitor sales peaked at $13.696 billion. 

IMO no analyst could possibly put out a report that considered the full potential sales of apabetalone without being laughed out of the industry, today. How can two people who do a lot of work in the biotech industry come up with market penetration numbers that are so many miles apart? Beacon was at 2% RVX's estimate was at 58%. IMO if Beacon used a peak sales number any larger than what he did his credibility would diminish as the current share price would be to far from the potential target. For Beacon to used a one year out  "market cap" of an industry standard 1X's potential annual sales was the safest alternative.

If and that's a big if, BoM shows a RRR of 57% or 77% in certain patient categories then IMO peak sales will far exceed a market penitration of just 2%. I think Beacon has left a lot of room for revaluation dependent on events that may happen in the future.

All IMO. DYODD

tada

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