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Message: Remembering Relypsa

I think most here are very familiar with me being something of a social media stock junkie...for those who aren't familiar, I'm all over it. 

Here, stocktwits, investorsbub, yahoo, stockhouse and more.  I even had an account at investorsvillage but got kicked off for posting negatively about Ziopharm back in 2015 when that stock got pumped up around $15

I get around....

Back in early 2016 I noticed that a certain biotech, Relypsa, was getting slammed pretty hard on sites like StockTwits  and Twitter.  I didn't look into it much, all I knew was that it was a biotech.  One persistent bashing poster kept putting up a short video of a tree falling to the ground with something like RLYP TIMBERRRRRRR!!!!!

I never bought RLYP, although I wish I had....in June of 2016 it traded down as low as $16 and even lower in May,  then it was bought out by Galenica for $32 per share in an all cash deal.  

I didn't do any research on it then, and its only just recently that I started thinking about it.  Why?  Because of how RVX.TO seems to be languishing.  $3+ is a good price for me, its not a double but I still could walk away with better than a 66% return if I sold all my shares for $3+.  

I recall something posted more than a year back, and I believe it was by SanFran, I hope I have that right.  If memory serves SanFran was commenting about a conversation he'd had with an experienced biotech investor, and that this individual had commented that if Resverlogix really had something worth considering, that it would have been bought out long ago.....please correct me if I'm wrong in this, I actually think it was 2 or 3 years back.  

I saw the same type of comments posted on stocktwits just recently (aug/sept) about RVX.CA.  The same argument, that if Apabetalone had as good a chance at approval as I think it does (not risk free of course) then it would have been bought out.  

That got me to thinking about Relyspa again, and I finally decided to check it out tonight.  I was surprised by some of the things I found.....sorry for the long lead in, but that's my style :-)

What spurred the buyout by Galenica?  It was a drug/poweder called Patiromer, that is mixed with water and taken daily for the treatment of high blood potassium levels for Kidney patients.  Here's what I found really interesting, and I only looked into it tonight.  This Patiromer (aka Veltassa) was approved by the FDA in October of 2015:

https://www.google.ca/search?ei=mbgAXNKBG-qfjwSPpITgBQ&q=FDA+approval+patiromer&oq=FDA+approval+patiromer&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i22i30l2.11645.12441..13157...0.0..0.86.164.2......0....1j2..gws-wiz.......0j0i71j0i67.e52x9sSvpQE

So even after its drug/powder got approved Relypsa still wasn't bought out for another 9 months.  

I know I have commented often (along with Koo I believe) how, in my opinion, Resverlogix's share structure makes a BO more than problematic in my eyes, HL and Eastern ownership and the Royalty Preferred Shares component I see as complicating factors.  

But seeing another company that was recently bought out almost a full year after FDA approval is encouraging to me.  Apparently Astra-Zeneca had a drug that would have competed, but the FDA rejected it, and that might have been keeping potential buyers away until the rejection.  Here's an article on that:

https://xconomy.com/san-francisco/2016/07/21/after-rival-stumbles-relypsa-gets-1-5b-buyout-bid-from-galenica/

The more science focused members may have some insight on Apabetalone and whether or not it has potential to address high levels of blood potassium in patients with CKD...I have no idea.  And likewise I haven't done any research into the number of patients or market size for this powder.

The $32 per share price was reflective of a buyout price of $1.53 billion USD.  I suspect that many here would consider that incredibly low for Apabetalone, however our current USD MC is less than $470 million.  So even at a $1.5 billion USD price I think we could safely triple our current PPS with that kind of deal, allowing for a fully diluted price of course.  

Somewhere between $9 and $10 CDN would be fine with me, of course I want $20, $30 or even more....but I wouldn't cry if I had to settle for $9.  

 

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$9
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Nov 30, 2018 04:49PM
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