If you look at the Roth analyst report, he has a target price of $10, but with only a 60% chance of success.  And he gives zero value to CKD, Dementia & Fabry.  

If we are right, and BETonMACE is a success, that would allow the Roth analyst to a) jack up his target to $16, b) start valuing CKD etc.  So I can easily see it being given a target price of $20.  I don't know what discount rate he has used, but given the games sell side analysts play in cooking up their targets, I would assume his discount rate would fall as well, causing another kick up to his target price.

At $20, RVX would be valued at only C$3 billion...which is only US$2.25 billion.  If you were a big Pharma company, would you be willing to pay US$2.25 billion for a small molecule drug, with no known side effects, and with the potential to be the next Humira?  Hell yes!  In fact, it should generate a feeding frenzy amongst the Big Pharma companies.  

As the Makalu report showed, Abbott did not understand how big Humira would become, when they launched it, back in 2002.  Abbott thought peak sales would be $2 billion...while last year, Humira clocked up $18 billion.  Now Big Pharma is much wiser...and willing to pay up for a sure shot success story.  They have been burnt buying drugs on the promise of successful Phase 2 trials...so the executives who are able to write such checks would rather pay a lot more for a successful Phase 3 drug, than a little for a promising Phase 2.  

The fact that RVX has 2 big shareholders makes it much easier for a buyer to negotiate.  Hepalink is not the logical owner of RVX...they have zero marketing ability in the US/Europe/Japan/Canada.  That is why Hepalink has kept the one country they have clout over...China.  I view Hepalink as a portfolio investor...a seller at the right price.  Their market cap is only $3.5 billion with an operating cash flow of less than $50 million last year.  A sale of RVX would be a big boon for them.

My pet peeve is that RVX is not listed on the Nasdaq.  For it to do another Amarin, a Nasdaq listing is a sine qua non.  If they wait for Phase 3 results to come through and then list on the Nasdaq, that will be a damp squib.  They should list asap...and then see the magic of lustful US buyers driving it up to god knows what.

Kirkland Lake Gold listed on the US market on August 11 2017.  It allowed not only a new pool of investors to buy in, it also allowed KL to be available to bought on margin, in the US.  The stock went from $10 to $20 in a year...partly because their gold mine in Australia kept shooting the lights out.

Personally, I think the Makalu fellow has it right.  A US$5 billion is a real possibility if Phase 3 is as good as we all think.  $30 may be full value...but looking at Amarin at US$5.5 billion for a one trip pony fish oil (I bought Vascepa myself; and immediately felt this is not going to be as successful as most investors think...it is just a fish oil!)...$30 for RVX is not that far fetched.

Needless to say, all our wildest dreams rest on Phase 3 coming in as hoped.