icon - One of the best analysis out there now is the Beacon Securities report by Dr David Kedeckil from 15 Nov 2017. There is a link in the RVX Link Library that BDAZ keeps up to date for all of us.

In this report he comes up with a value of $8.55 per share for the CVD and CKD indications only. This valuation is based on just a 2% market penetration. I believe, but was not able to verify it quickly, that the discount rate used was 12%. Using this 2% market penetration pretty much covers your narrow market share assumption. These numbers also are based on achieving the pre stated 30% RRR. 

Now to the reality of the stituation. If we not only pass the pre stated 30% RRR but exceed   it then I could easily see projections of numbers change very rapidly. Using your 40% RRR for example it would be realistic to see the market penetration assumption move from 2% to 10% or even higher. It would also be realistic to see the discount rate drop from 12% to 10% or 8% or maybe even 5%.

Given the starting point for the Beacon report and taking away the risk of trial completion it would be very easy to justify a $40 to $60 per share price if we meet our pre stated endpoint of 30% RRR or greater. If as BDAZ says the secondary indication of CKD shows poor, good or great numbers that valuation could go up or down from there.

The wild card that has absolutely no value given to it is this cognitive function indication. Don mentioned vascular dementia in his AGM presentation and was very specific about vascular dementia, not Alzheimer's. Given the amount of attention that has been put into the cognitive function potential for apabetalone since about March/April this  year, it is my opinion that we are going to see something very good come out either at the Top Line results announcement or the full data results presentation that will shock the market, in a good way. Biogen's share price got a C$85/shr boost when they came out with their Alzheimer's trial results the first week of July this year. That came on the back of them announcing that they were able to slow the progress of the disease by 31%. Imagine just for a moment what over exuberant traders could do to our share price if we were able to say we had an increase in cognitive function of just 1%. If we had numbers higher than that, briefly, just briefly it could be very exciting. As I understand it there are 5.6 million people in America(only) today with Dementia/Alzheimer's and that number is expected to increase to over 15 million inside of 15 years. At this point there are very few effective drugs available for the treatment of these diseases, could we be one of them? Unlike CVD or CKD patients the Dementia/Alzheimer's patients need 24/7 care. The current unmet need for treatment of these diseases world wide is astronomical.

All IMO, dyodd.

Have a Merry Christmas everyone. May the money tree fall on our house in 2019.

tada