Here is the excerpt from the Beacon initiation report:

Apabetalone in CVD & CKD

Assuming a launch date of 2021, and a total universe of potential apabetalone patients of 18.8m in a total 7 top markets, including the US, Japan and EU (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain) (estimate provided by Resverlogix, based on the following assumptions): a total of 7.6m patients with DM (Types I & 2), with low HDL and heart disease; 4.5m patients with high risk CVD, low HDL, without DM; 6.7m patients with CKD (Stage 3-5), without heart disease and/or DM = 18.8m. We assume a 0.5% market share in 2021, a peak market share of 2% by 2025, a 18x P/E multiple, and a total discount rate of 25% to allow for baked-in risk to accommodate for both CVD (Phase 3) and CKD (Phase 2a). Resverlogix has conducted third party payor data analysis, and has determined that the cost of Apabetalone will be, at a minimum, $5000/yr/patient. By using this very conservative estimate, this results in revenues of ~$ 1.8b at peak annual sales. Using a discounted cash flow analysis, we arrive at a valuation of the Company at C$8.55/share. This represents a potential 12 month return for investors of ~563%.

He is clubbing an unknown Phase 3 result with only a 2% market share by 2025...still, this seems like the usual analyst game being played here.  if an analyst thinks there is huge upside, they will toss in all kinds of tough assumptions (25% discount rate, only 2% peak penetration rate) so that no one can accuse them of being anything but conservative.  This is similar to the 60% chance of success rate assumed by the Roth analyst...and then he still got a $16 target price.