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Message: Every day the same lately....

KayakerBC....you nailed it.  

The problem here is that we're dealing with multiple hypotheticals.....Right now we don't know if the company has hit 250 adjuticated (henceforth I'll use the word confirmed) events.  If they have not we further don't know if they plan on releasing news of that fact to the markets.  And in any case its impossible to say how the market would react to such news with certainty.

Nonetheless I'm going to say that I do think announcing the attainment of 250 events, that it could reasonably be expected to result in a signficant change in the market price or value of both RVX and RVX.WT

I bolded "a significant change" because its a fuzzy term....How much is 'significant'?  For someone with 100K shares a 10 cent move in the PPS represents $10,000....for me $10K is significant.  For the company as a whole a 10 cent move represents over $19,000,000 toward the Market Cap.  

Why do I think news that 250 events, signalling the end of the trial, would be significant enough to move the company's MC by tens of millions of dollars?  

Primarily because it would eliminate an unkown.  We all know that Resverlogix is a money burning machine right now, somewhere around $4 million p/month, that's simply reality...a reality that is par for the course for a development stage biotech company with no products to generate revenue.

Using BDZ's favourite (although he admits is not a perfect comparison and that he focuses a bit too much on it) example of Amarin's Reduce-It trial for Vascepa I could easily argue that announcing the attainment of 250 events for BETonMACE can reasonably be expected to significantly impact the PPS of RVX.

On April 3rd AMRN closed at $2.93, the day before it was at $2.92.  Then on April 4th the company announced that their trial had reached the number of MACE specificed by their trial's design:

https://investor.amarincorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amarins-reduce-it-cardiovascular-outcomes-study-reaches-100-mark

On April 4th the PPS closed at $3.16 for a day over day increase of 23 American pennies, or 7.8%. Amarin currently shows ~293 million shares outstanding, if that share count was in that same area back on April 4th of 2018 then Amarin's MC  increased by over $60,000,000 on the day this news event came out.  

Now of course Amarin's PPS is over $16 with a MC over over $5 billion USD.  

 

 

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