One thing to add, given this model where the growth of the MACE rate slows dramatically with time, and the 2-3 month period it takes to confirm a MACE, it would seem the company's initial estimate of 200 MACE in mid September was off. I suspect the company may have extrapolated the MACE rate at its highest point thereby missing the turn lower. Remember they were expecting 10-15 per month but it's likely to have been in the 6-10 range instead. If they extrapolated over just a few months they could be off by 10-20 MACE. Said anotherway, September MACE could be between 180-190 instead of "bang on 200". Thus going from 180-190 to over 220 would suggest a higher MACE rate going forward than what is being assumed.