I was playing around on the internet last night and wondering what if, the RRR comes in short of what they need for statistical significants, the CKD numbers come in better than most expect, the dementia numbers come in better than most expect and everything comes in better than most expect.

From the analysts reports on RVX there is around 18 million people in the G8 countries that could use ABL for CVD. The big guess is what % of those would use ABL to ease their problem if we have success in BoM. One annalyst used just 2% market share to come up with a share value of $8.50ish a share just for the potential CVD market.

The Kidney Foundation says there is about 30 million people in the US alone with CKD and that the Medicade costs alone are in excess of $100 billion annually. That $100 billion does not include the costs to the private insurers.  About 1 in 3 adults in the US will have CKD. From the RVX presentation at the AGM there are about 380 million people world wide with CKD. 

Dementia, I can't remember the website that I got the most info from for dementia but I think it was WebMed. I asked Google; How many people in Europe had dementia, and the site came up. It estimated that in 2017 there was 50 million people world wide with dementia and the numbers are increasing each year. Just an observation, Alzheimer's seemed to be more prevalent in the Northern or colder climates than in the warmer climates.

As I was reading this I wondered whether ABL should have been a Kidney drug or a Dementia drug instead of a cardio drug as the market seems to be double or more the size in each of those markets than of the cardio market.

Long shory short, if we come up short on numbers for this diabetic cardio trial but have success in either or both of these sub studies the RVX story will be far from dead. If they come in with good numbers in all categories even the most aggressive guesses on the share price game could be dramatically low. The secondary studies in BoM represent opportunities that are much much larger than diabetic CVD patients.

tada