BDAZ thanks for your reply yesterday. The following may be way off base.

From the NEJM article EXAMINE enrolled 5380 patients for 40 months with a median participation of 18 months. This would currently seem very similar to BETOnMACE for duration and participation, BoM as we know has about 2425 participants currently. The placebo group in EXAMINE had 316 events by end of trial. If SoC is similar then one might assume that the placebo groups would behave similarly. IF they do behave similarly then one might then expect that the BoM placebo group would have had about 142 events by now. (2425/5380=.4507*316=142). IF there have now been close to 142 placebo events in BoM while we are waiting for a total of 250 trial events then BoM will be very successful. I realize topline is time to first occurrence but if there is in fact around 142 placebo events then the time factor should work out well. As I said I could be way off the mark.