"This is a very approximate calculation using MANY asumptions,...and probaly wrong!"

Your guess is within the realm of possibilities. However, there are many possibilities depending upon the actual placebo event rate, actual apabetalone effect size and current number of patient years. I took a stab in an earlier post at what 30% RRR would look like for 3 different patient year numbers. Your 4350 is on the high end. The AHA 2018 poster stated "With an assumed primary event rate of 7 per 100 patient years in the placebo group....." That would be consistent with the 4000 patient year, 30% RRR numbers in my previous post. But this is all guesstimates. Lots of unknown variables. Tick tock.

BearDownAZ