Danceswithorses - At one point the guy who wrote the Zach's report explained where and how that 53% came from. It could be from all P3 trials, all P3 cardio trials, or all P3 diabetic trials prior to Top Line readout. Needless to say there is a reason BP don't mind waiting a little more and paying a whole lot more for surety. Having a positive Top Line readout will remove an enormous amount of risk and will leave the door wide open for many positive possibilities.
The company has given us an indication that they would tell us when 250 events were achieved. I don't expect any updates until they get there. The 238 you speak of is just an estimate from DM's comment of, we have about a dozen left to go, or something close to those words. "about" does not infer an exact number as much as we would like it to.
JMHO
tada