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Message: Could there be another shoe waiting to drop?

From the Phase 2 data, we have the following information.

After 3 months, there was no change in eGFR in patients receiving RVX208 (vs -3.7% for placebo).  

After 6 months, eGFR increased by 3.4% (compared to a -5.9% in placebo).

Obviously there is no way of figuring out what happens after 12 months of being on Apabetalone, but I would hazard a 5% increase in eGFR.  This is because I am assuming that the cumulative improvements in eGFR continue well after 6 months and up to 12 months. 

Of course I will be the first one to fess up that this is simply a guess based on looking at the charts for the MACE curves  for the Diabetic patients which seem to plateau after 100 days and seem to continue to show improvements till even after 200 days.  But I feel fairly confident if the eGFR increases, it has to be more than the 3.4% after 6 months in Phase 2.

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