Re: Comments on the AGM
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 09, 2019 12:26PM
tada / others ... $4-8b is exciting, and seems appropriate assuming "data data data" looks really good. But apabetalone still not "proven" and accepted/approved by FDA. There is potentially a LOT of "promise" assuming data data data is "all that" butt still significant risk. probably more risk for a small company like RVX than a BP with resources and decades of experience and relationship with the FDA. I'm on board with holding off on a deal until we know more from the FDA, and see the sicentific community's reaction to the data data data including cognitive if it really does look that good.
"If" all data data data looks good across all endpoints and sub-studies, then we can calculate potential market value ... but we are still at a stage of risk to market, that both RVX and BP's must acknowledge. But, the futher this goes along looking good, and the closer we get to NdA and approval the lower the risk goes and the higher the acquisition value. Especially if you are getting ALL of the apabetalone applications, ALL of the IP, and Dr Norman Wong guiding the future development.
I'm "sensing" (hoping?) a buyout coming also, possibly ... hopefully with several serious BP's negotiating and "competing" for a deal with RVX ... positivity from the FDA for an NDA now or a bolt-on to simply power up the good data data data would hopefully nudge the value closer to the 8b from the 4b ... Don and the board (and investors) have to decide how big of a bird in the hand (sure thing) they are willing to take to call it a day after 20 years, and eliminate the time, costs, risk of trying to get closer to market while values continually increases.
I would be looking for 6b with "decent" news from the FDA (incl a bolt-on designed to just get more numbers showing the same things that BoM showed to power up the data) ... a decent discount for a BP buyer, with wild upside potentially ... and a big win for RVX, the investors, Don, and Dr Wong, and the purchasing BP potentially.
At 6b or 24 pps, that is a lot of ROI for RVX investors, and potentially a "steal" long term for the BP if apabetalone reaches/touches the market in more than just Cardio. It seems like a good deal point for mutual benefits, and to mitigate risk both ways, if the data data data is good and the FDA outlook is promising.
JMHO's
glta