Just for fun (S's & G's) ... If I am the lead negotiator for BP on a "partnering deal" with RVX ...
What RVX gets:
1) I offer enough projected operational funding to get thru the study period. Payable monthly. With complliance factors, that allow me to opt out if RVX fools me in due diligence and turns out to be a "clown show" ... let's say "up to" 3 years x $1.5m /month = a $54m commitment and investment in the R&D future of both RVX and BP.
2) I offer to pay the study costs for apabetalone Phase-4 whatever it is, based on FIRM and FIRST HAND information from the FDA as well as RVX. I manage the study with my BP resources. Let's "guess" that this amounts to $100m (no clue?!). Roughly a $150m commitment so far.
3) I offer the full experience, analytics, resources, knowledge, cost savings, study & patient selection methods, and relationships of my BP in working/dealing with RVX business and science, regulatory, FDA, doctors, host sites. A collaborative set of sunk costs for mutual benefit, and better assurance of success. Plus CONTROL.
4) Retirement of the current Debenture.
5) I demand control, and first hand interactions in every detail including and most especially study design, regulatory interactions, facility and management of the study.
What do I (BP) get? What does RVX give up?:
1) Apabetalone IP & patents at a fire sale at a highly discounted rate if no FDA approval within 3 years. Price tbd, negotiated.
2) Highly discounted purchase price for Apabetalone, and/or RVX (kit-n-kaboodle), upon certain accumulated milestones of varying value. If FDA approves apabetalone within those 3 years, and overall market valuation based on unmet needs indications relative to the study end points is $8b then I want it for $5b. If fair market valuation is $5b then I want it for $3b ... roughly for 60% as a reward for the pain and suffering of getting it across the finish line and paying for the freight.
3) I also want a) an agreed upon option to either take you out completely at any time, and b) an option to not purchase upon FDA approval but instead manufacture, market, distribute apabetalone within the study end points and indications at minimum.
Benefits For BP ... if they truly believe in the science, and it is accretive to their current products and research, this is like you and me losing a few quarters in the couch cushions after a saturday afternoon slumber watching golf. Plus a heavily discounted opportunity upon success, which could be hugely profitable for years to come with new business, as well as potentially propping up existing business and market segment category dominance, as well as future leadership at the "dawn" of epigenetics.
Benefits For RVX ... if the science truly is good, replicable, and "provable" in a study format and within academic standards, this provides funding, resources, relationships, "know how" and experience & credibility to get apabetalone across the finish line with a negotiated valuation per established milestones and proof along the way. They may have options for selling/licensing apabetalone alone or as part of the entire company, based on negotiations and milestone driven valuations. Or simply a licensing deal for a fully proven and commercially available product, success & credibility, cash flow, and a library of molecules to focus on next.
Each billion is a LOT of money, in reality.
Obviously, just a framework, devil is in the details. But, this is how I would see a "mutually beneficial" relationship working in a situation like the current one. In the end, RVX & apabetalone get to commercial status if deserved ... and BP is heavily rewarded in future discounting for carrying the ball across the goal line. RVX could get bought out completely for $4-8b based on negotiations, or sell/license apabetalone singly and discretely based on mutually agreeable criteria/regions (Hepa?) and move forward with other "star factory" efforts with success, credibility, significant cash flows.
What would be nice, and helpful for many of the terms & conditions, and the most favorable agreement for RVX and its investors would be ... COMPETING BP's
Just some thoughts, open to criticisms :)
