Did DM show some cards?
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 04, 2020 12:21PM
CALGARY, Alberta, Jan. 13, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Resverlogix Corp. (“Resverlogix” or the "Company") (TSX: RVX) is pleased to announce today additional highly significant findings and clear synergy when apabetalone is combined with anti-diabetic therapies, including dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4i) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), resulting in the filing of new intellectual property.
In total, approximately 25% of BETonMACE patients were on new oral anti-diabetic treatments that included SGLT2 and DPP4 inhibitors. In combination with apabetalone, primary MACE was reduced by 57% and by 63% when hospitalization for congestive heart failure was included. We believe the efficacy and safety demonstrated with this combination approach will greatly assist in our strategic partnership discussions and significantly improves our intellectual property and commercial runway position. In short, we can demonstrate efficacy, safety and we believe we now have a clear path to commercialization.
Jardiance (co-owned by Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly) and Januvia (Merck & Co.) are the current SGLT2i and DPP4i market leaders, respectively. The market penetration of these treatments is expected to grow significantly over the next five years, with the potential global market value of approximately US$25 billion by 2024 (Mordor Intelligence 2019). However, no diabetes medication alone (including SGLT2i and DPP4i) has been shown to reduce MACE in patients with recent ACS and substantial residual risk remains for this population."
US$25 billion by 2024 - That is blockbuster territory!
Another reference from the SA article in your original post
"It is clear that getting a BTD adds significant value to a company. Based on historical averages, a pure play company with a BTD for a significant population could be worth $8.3 billion. Companies that meet these criteria should be thoroughly evaluated for their blockbuster (over $1.0 billion in peak sales) potential. Other companies should be evaluated for their potential as a platform technology and the ability to put up more than 1 BTD. The other thing that investors need to consider is that not all BTDs are created equal. There is clearly a correlation between the size of the potential patient population and the valuation."
Note that the article also states that BP dominates BTD approvals - the 2 BPs that DM referenced in his news release are big on BTDs, ie., Merck with 16 and Lilly with 5.
Also note the in the SA article above - "not all BTDs are created equal - there is a correllation between the size of the patient population and the valuation."
I did some research yesterday on the cos. listed in the SA article - one company, EIGR, has 3 BTDs - all for orphan indications - in 2015 they were trading at ~$300 per share, that's 9B - today it trades at $10/sh with a Market Cap of ~300M - yikes - what happened there - RVX needs to do a reverse flip on those numbers
Perhaps DM was showing some cards
If he was - don't bet against him - he could have the winning hand
Just speculation and food for thought
Chicagoest