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Message: Re: Heart failure study
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Feb 07, 2021 10:32AM
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Feb 07, 2021 11:06AM
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Feb 07, 2021 11:54AM
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Feb 07, 2021 12:05PM
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Feb 07, 2021 03:07PM

Hey Fuzzy, my guess is that the Deloitte report has probably put RVX value in the range of $8-12 US/sh. You look at the potential markets the company has provided, which are easily verifiable by looking at current numbers from any national (US, Can, EU) diabetes, kidney and CV disease organization websites. Further the projected explosion of these diseases in those markets as well as in the Middle East and China, the numbers thus potential markets are staggering. Add to that the value of CHF, which seems very promising, and potentially CoVid and successful Apabetalone looks more and more like a potential blockbuster drug.

$8-12 USD implies a market cap of around $2.5B USD which is roughly 1/2 of the average market cap increase of BTD. To me you have to do some heavy discounting based on likely hood of success, coming dilution, and potential market capture to get down to a value of $2.5B USD.  From what I've read the low end of the range for value derived from BTD is mostly for companies with drugs that are very necessary to their patient populations, they just have small potential markets.  I think RVX's poor management is just setting records for futility on capturing the market cap value generally ascribed to companies who have developed drugs which are potentially blockbusters.  Hopefully soon we will see some glimmer of a solid go forward plan and this leads to a market valuation change for all investors.  JMO

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Feb 09, 2021 12:18PM
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