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Message: Expiring Warrants

Unless something happens in the next few months to significantly boost the SP, it is beginning to look as though some 32 million warrants will not be exercised and expire during this time.  I recognize this is not 'news' to many here on the board.  I suppose there is a possibility that these warrants could be exercised by some of the bigger players holding them simply because they could not possibly purchase so many common shares on the open market without significantly boosting the SP in the process.  So, if they are super confident about the company's prospects then this could happen and time will tell if they do or don't.  If we assume that none of these warrants will be exercised then we could be left with only 4.4M warrants outstanding; namely, the June 2023 warrants and another handful due some 3.5 years from now.

Current O/S common shares, according to the company's website, now stand at approx. 234M.  When adding in what could be the remaining warrants after the end of this year we are looking at a total of about something just north of 238M shares.  When I got into this thing just over 3 years ago I think the total number of 'shares' o/s was approx. 180M so over that period we would have an increase of some 60M shares....assuming none of the others due this year are converted.

So what is the point you may ask?  It is that dilution of the company's stock may not end up to be as dramatic as we had anticipated, especially since the BoM results were announced in Sept 2019.  I'm not an expert on RSUs and whatever other common share incentives may be out there that could impact the number of shares O/S, but if we could (any maybe that should be a silightly bigger IF we could) get a successful outcome on the Covid trial and, ultimately, BoM2 then current common share holders and, hopefully, 2023 warrant holders could be well rewarded for hanging in there.  Based on the positives that have taken place since Sept 2019, I think that there is as much reason as not to be optimistic that a successful outcome to all of this is still very much a possibility.

 

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