Yesterday it was oil and natural gas, today it is precious metals. UBS has again lowered its 2009 forecast for gold, this time from US$825 per ounce to US$700, while also cutting silver sharply from US$15.08 and US$12.58 in 2009 and 2010 to US$8.40 and US$8.95.

“The revised UBS commodity price outlook reflects an extended recessionary scenario with base metal prices in both 2009/2010 that are mostly below the marginal industry costs and current spot prices,” the investment bank said in a report. “If such a recessionary scenario were to unfold, we believe that almost all North American mining companies could experience challenges to liquidity and/or business continuity.

Platinum saw a US$200 per ounce reduction for those years to US$900 and US$1100, respectively.

UBS has also adjusted its base metals forecasts. Most significant for gold equities, copper moved from US$2.50 and US$3.00 per pound to US$1.30 and US$1.55.

“UBS believes gold will remain under pressure in 2009 from a combination of slowing demand for jewellery and disinvestment as inflation slows,” the report said. “Silver forecasts have been lowered sharply to take account of the dramatic underperformance of silver compared to gold in recent months. Platinum forecasts have been reduced to reflect exposure to weak auto sales in 2009/2010 due to a deeper global slowdown.”

As a result of these changes, its 12-month price targets for gold companies in its coverage universe fall by an average of 35%.

UBS analyst Brian MacArthur told clients that gold companies with primary listings in the U.S. have historically received a higher valuation. He highlighted Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp. as the best examples of this, but also Goldcorp Inc. He also said companies that get a greater proportion of their revenues from non-gold sources tend to trade at a significant valuation discount.