first comment
posted on
Oct 14, 2009 12:04PM
San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.
There is no certainty that SGR/SKP's technical success will take the stock up, if the economy,stock markets, and gold, take a dive. My suspicion is that if people aren't spending, and the economy is weak in the US, the govt will continue to counterfeit the US dollar at the Fed and Treasury, as they have been doing - this paper being backed, only, by the promises of politicians who have other callings than protecting it's value.
Re: SGR's strategy. SGR makes decisions on where to place every drill hole. If they chose, now, to infill drill to connect deposits, it would come out of the "outfill" budget for finding new locations of ore. I assume the management majority wants to delay a takeover attempt (as long as they can, rapidly, increase the probable reserve figures, and get better bids for the stock in the future). My guess is that the greater ratio of probable reserves to 43-101 proven, the longer they will delay a takeover and the higher the price it will be. (But, this is a difficult wait for most of us) The elephant in the closet, however,is the general economy. This strategy could go poorly if all technical success with the SGR drills is nullified by a depressed general economy during the payback period, from many years of massive personal and public deficit spending. Regardless, SGR has an amazing situation going on, in that their break even price of gold sales is very low, if they chose to run their high grade ore.
RE:Gold goes up, SGR goes down. Most of us who write on this site seem to be SGR and Dundee outsiders, including me, . . .but . . . Dundee (and others) could be a huge success because they're smart, well run and don't lose their money often. Such a company, if they were about to be forced to receive their share of the 6 Million plus shares from the recently closed debenture offering, might want to protect their profit by shorting an equal number of SGR shares on the open market - stock goes up or down the profit spread stays the same. If this happens to be the case, then SGR could have as many as 6 million shares, suddenly, for sale. There will be no short covering bounce later, because the new option shares will be sold at the same time as the short shares are bought back. And what happens to SGR stock during the couple of months the option holders have before they can sell their 6 million shares (and do a profit protecting, offsetting short sale of 6 million while they are waiting) ? The notice went out in late September, and I would guess they would have their new shares about 60 days from then. They might not want to disrupt their own market too much at once, so the short sales would be spread out a bit. I would guess that 2/3 of this new stock might have been shorted - or will be, but what do I know ? In a couple of months, when the short sales are covered and the new stock is sold I would expect a jump in the volume of stock trading. The millions of shares short, and the millions of new shares may offset each other, so the volume would jump up, but with little effect on the price, either way from these. However, new shares sold, that aren't offset by short covering would depress SGR's stock in the future. So, besides dilution, the execution of these options, shorted or not, is going to effect the stock adversely for a couple of months - either now, if shorted, or later, if not.. (True believers will view this as a buying opportunity if they have any money left)
And - amazing leg work by Traps - Thanks !
John