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Message: Re: Is Gold de-coupling?
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Oct 30, 2009 05:05PM
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Oct 30, 2009 08:22PM

Nov 01, 2009 01:41AM

I am by no means an "expert" in these matters, like most here I muddle through it at best. Just some definitions to support your arguement:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/contango_backwardation.asp

Suppose we enter into a Dec 2008 futures contract, today, for $100. Now go forward one month. The same Dec 2008 future contract could still be $100. But it might also have increased to $110 (this implies normal backwardation) or it might have decreased to $90 (implies contango). The definitions are as follows:

  • Contango is when the futures price is above the expected future spot price. Because the futures price must converge on the expected future spot price, contango implies that futures prices are falling over time as new information brings them into line with the expected future spot price.
  • Normal backwardation is when the futures price is below the expected future spot price. This is desirable for speculators who are "net long" in their positions: they want the futures price to increase. So, normal backwardation is when the futures prices are increasing.

Consider a futures contract that we purchase today, due in exactly one year. Assume the expected future spot price is $60 (see the blue flat line in Figure 2 below). If today's cost for the one-year futures contract is $90 (the red line), the futures price is above the expected future spot price. This is a contango scenario. Unless the expected future spot price changes, the contract price must drop. If we go forward in time one month, note that we will be referring to an 11-month contract; in six months, it will be a six-month contract.

Copyright ã 2007 Investopedia.com
Figure 2


Sorting Out the Confusion
Clearly, it is more precise to say that in contango, futures prices for a given maturity date are falling. In normal backwardation, futures are rising. This is not exactly the same as the shape of the futures curve because futures prices are constantly adjusting to consensus expectations about the expected future spot price.

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