Re: Low Volume...Not bad on pps SFMI
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 08, 2010 05:06PM
(Edit this Message from the "Fast Facts" Section)
I did some rough calculations a while ago on the relative valuations of GHDC vs SFMI. Basically, if the grades/revenues are as expected and the milling/mining costs are low, then SFMI will be a very low cost producer. Ignoring expenses, SFMI and GHDC split 85:15, or 5.7 to one. So SFMI is worth at most 5.7x GHDC (since SFMI's expenses will certainly be higher than GHDC's). If SFMI's operating expenses are say 50% of revenue (unlikely), then the nets are (85-50):15, or 35:15, or 2.3:1. I'd expect expenses to be more like 20-25%, so 65 or 60:15, or 4.3 or 4:1. This ignores of course the $1M rent payment, as well as operating expenses for GHDC, both of which I expect to be not very significant compared to revenue. So assuming the structure and assets of the two companies stay the same, the ratio of the profits should be somewhere above 4:1. Both companies have about the same number of outstanding shares, so that same ratio should be reflected in the sp. The ratio has in fact been running in the range 4-5:1 until just recently. Is there some change taking place to cause the ratio to change, or is it just that interest in both companies has perked up but the lower float in GHDC has resulted in a sharper rise?
A little more on the expenses of SFMI- Mining and milling costs of ~$200/t (based on PRs), with grades of 2 oz/t, gives costs of $200 to generate $2300 in revenue (if $1150 net back per ounce after smelter fees). That's 8.6%, so round up to 10%. Revenues at 100 tpd, 2 oz/t, $1150/oz, for 360 days gives $83M. SFMI says in the filings about $10-12M in the next 12 months for exploration and reopening the mines. That's about 15% of revenues. So 25% for operations including milling, mining, exploration, reopening mines (actually less, since there will be no mining costs for a year or so).
Again, these are rough calculations.
As far as the 15% of gross for share buyback, that will directly result in a higher sp, so I don't consider it a "cost" of the company that reduces the sp or profits. 15% of $83M is $12.5M, or over 60M shares at today's price. No way that amount of money won't drive the sp up substantially. It might even return more than a dividend- though I wouldn't mind one of those either.