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Message: How much gas is on Block 5(c)?

How much gas is on Block 5(c)?

posted on Mar 13, 2009 09:43PM

Over the Hill posted the following on the IV board yesterday and there is some merit to what he is saying:

Re: Value of 25% of 5c is it 3 TCF, 5 Tcf, 10 Tcf

"It is all out of my hands and there are so many variables, the final numbers on the first three wells, if they intend to drill Turtle deeper into the producing sands, if the large hydro carbon field on the south portion is drilled or explored, there certainly seems to be a large deposit there, and SNG has known about it for years. Years ago I sent a e-mail asking them about it and they said they were quite aware of it and had planned to explore it in due time. No one knows what someone will bid and what amount of reserves they feel comefortable safely paying for. Or for that matter the reasonable amount of reserves. Estimates run from 1 to 10, we will not know what is worth until maby a half dozen more wells are drilled. So is someone going to try to steal the block? is someone going to bid on the first three wells? is someone going to bid on the entire block on estimated reserves plus defined reserves. Each bid would be very different from the outher. All I know is I am in for a hell of a lot more than a buck a share and a hell of a lot more shares than I should be. My own fault, not crying just stateing reality. Good luck to us all we just might all we can get. " OTH

There is a lot of natural gas on Block 5(C) in addition to the 3-4 trillion cubic feet discovered so far at with the Victory-1 well in the G sand; the Bounty-1 well in the I sand , and the Endeavour-1 well in the I sand. There are a number of other strata containing prospective natural gas reservoirs above the discovered gas in the I sands at Bounty and Endeavour for example in the G sands and in the H sands. In addition, the Turtle well can be deepened to see if there is gas in other strata. There is a huge anomaly that OTH mentions in the south of Block 5(c) which will probably turn up trillions of cubic feet of natural gas in a few years when it gets drilled. There is also a prospect in the east of Block 5(c) called Octopus which needs to be explored which I remember seeing in one of Canadian Superiors presentations which they have never shown since. The talk on the IV board yesterday was that the reserve report on the gas contained in the Endeavour well is already known in the data room at Scotia Watrous and anyone bidding knows about the reserve numbers now (which we don't know as they are a big secret). Bidders will be made aware of the other propsects on Block 5(c) by looking at the seismic charts and by Scotia Watrous' engineers. They also said that the Kan Tan IV will be released in the next week and that BG is bringing up a huge drillship from Brazil in April to start drilling another deliniation well on Block 5(C). Since about $300 million has been spent so far on drilling the 3 wells Canadian Superior had better get a good price for the percentage of Block 5(c) that it sells to pay for the cost of the drilling that it has already done. There had better be a large profit element after Canadian Superior accounts for already paid expenses in addition to the expenses that it owes. This is getting to be one large headache for Canadian Superior.

The question is does Canadian Superior keep a part of Block 5(c) to get a part of the tremendous profits that will be realized after 2012? That means continuing to deal with a difficult partner in BG and continuing to bleed money on further drilling costs (for with BG as operator they can drill as many deliniation wells as they want as fast as they want and bankrupt a smaller partner); or do we sell all, recapitalize Canadian Superior and move on to the M/G Block as well as Tunisia/Libya?

Time will tell; Best Wishes; Scott

P.S. there are 2 IV Boards.

1) for selected members : http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd....

2) for everyone else http://www.investorvillage.com/group...

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