Interesting exercise but I'd suggest some minor changes.

#1 if you're using the buy out figure then you can't add it to current market cap since after selling out most of that value disappears and isn't added to value. For example you say Noront get's 10 billion but want to add that to existing market cap of 665 million but 500 million of share price is already in for McFaulds Lake.

#2 Much harder but perhaps should be a size of claims adjustment in here because Probe does have less land than other players. Perhaps therefor somewhat less chance of multiple finds?

 Not sure how anyone can build and tweak an forumula balancing all the pro's and con's even if we all do try to do it in our head. Guess it would be a points thing, so many points for poximity to existing finds, so much for acreage under claim, so much for cash in the bank etc. etc.