is the fact that our cash will run out before the markets return to the full swing they were in February.
This is a problem for us, and all ROF players, because we must continue to spend money to drill. During the next year (my estimate of this commodity play recession) we will manage to do a lot of drilling and increase the knowledge of just what is under our properties. This means that when the market returns favour to the sector, we should have proved up a lot more on our deposits, and should be one of the more favoured companies, due to our involvement with various jv throughout the ROF.
However, we will also require a PP to continue beyond the next year. Unless we are able to hold off until the last minute, this means that there will be a lot of dilution at the current price. And, our current cash levels will be watched by the market, who will know that we are going to have to dilute. It is a crappy situation, but absolutely nothing can be done about it by our BOD. It is just a matter of bad timing for the market to break.
In a fair world, with market conditions like we had in Feb this year, we should be sitting around $0.20 IMO. This estimate doesn't leave a lot of speculative value, but is just based on the positive drill reports that we have had.
My guess is that the stock will hit a 52-week low of 1.5 cents in the next month or so. 10% of the high. That sucks. But, if you have the stomach for it, I think this will present a good buying opportunity to get a piece of a mature company with excellent prospects.