Re: A Probable Scenerio for the US markets and US$ and GOLD..
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 24, 2008 04:38AM
First Explorer at the "Ring of Fire" and presently drilling on the "BIG DADDY" Chromite/Pge's jv'd property...yet we were robbed
As much as I like what you wrote, I do not believe in deflation. Memories of the Great Depression will prevent us from allowing deflation to occur. The worst thing that could happen to the world at this point would be global deflation.
Hypothetically speaking, a zero interest rate policy, would mean that there are little means to help the economy going. In that case, we'd in a situation of stagflation. Usually, stagflation refers to stagnation of the economy in combination with inflation. However, stagnation combined with deflation is just as bad.
In that case, the only way to get the economy going again would be to print massive amounts of money. Sure, it would lead to surgeing prices and therefore a collapse of the money system, but anything seems better than deflation.
Point is, that with our modern-day monetary system not being 'covered' by central bank gold holdings, deflation can always be prevented as there are no limits to the amount of money that central banks can print. The name Zimbabwe comes to mind.
Whatever happens, interest rates close to zero are always dangerous. Look at how long it took (or rather: is taking) Japan to get out of their crisis.
And this situation is worse, much, much worse than Japan. What we are now whitnessing is a global crisis that has interest rates in all major economies dropping rapidly.
Whatever happens, sooner or later commodities will rise and they will rise rapidly. Currencies may be volatile, but don't forget that measuring the value of the EURO in US Dollars is no different from measuring the price of bananas in kilograms of liquorice. The only true credible standard of value is gold, although it hasn't been a credible standard for many years, due to central bank sales flooding the market with gold.
Now that central banks can no longer flood the market with gold and institutional investors have already flooded the market, we will soon see a better balance between physical demand and supply. And that will be the moment we have all been waiting for...