Control of assets and the perception of loss of control
posted on
May 29, 2010 09:09PM
First Explorer at the "Ring of Fire" and presently drilling on the "BIG DADDY" Chromite/Pge's jv'd property...yet we were robbed
IMHO NN or Smeenk did not know that the offer was coming, otherwise NN wouldn't have proposed the RS which in itself drove the SP down...what he did though is he may have attacted the moth to the flame, by portaying the SP shareholdes as scalpers (perception) ones who bail as soon as selling pressure was on the horizon...selling pressure which may have been fueled by CLF itself who was buying and selling to itself through ETMs.
Conversely, and to our collective advantage, CLF now has revealed its hand and must deal with having woken the sleeping dogs, causing the merger. The merger was probably the smartest desperate move I have seen in a long time. A previous post mentionned that CLF was a partner to KWG (19.5%) which limits the additional shares that they can obtain over the open market to 3% more. Consequently, the merger has forced CLF to a last option of a friendly offer, which is subject to negotiations and a vote by us. Power to the shareholders.
I think it might be futile to speculate on the next price offer, because I don't think that KWG or SPQ would accept it anyways, unless they were running out of capital and losing their capability to continue the drilling, the test pit and the development of the railroad proposal...let's face it ===time is on their side (and ours) for the following reasons 1. future exposure and increase in the intrinsic value of the assets, from more discoveries; 2. the evolving role and involvement of government as the economic propects for the north are further studied and exposed; 3. the possibility of a third, fourth and fifth party becoming interested in the acquisition due to the increasing perception of profitability 4. the various unknows being resolved or demystified as time and effort is invested.
I think that KWG and SPQ knew that a merger would all but nullify CLF's bargaining position. The longer they (KWG/SPQ) wait, the greater the perception that another company could come in and create a bidding war...in times like these, rich companies look for the best bargains of value and they are more wiling to compete for the control of these assets because they know that a substantial discount has already been factored into the SP by the economy...this is a world class asset and it is attracting a lot of attention, in spite of the silence of many would-be suitors...
To all who are wondering where to get out...let the buyers tell you...CLF has to do a friendly...all others can come in with hostile take-overs (at a premium)...that will certainly awaken CLF to the possibility of the loss of control of the assets...then???who would they be in bed with. That's an unknown that they would rather not deal with...once the ball starts rolling, CLF will do anything not to lose control of the assets (IMHO) they have gone too deep down the rabbit hole buy acquiring FWR and there is only one way to go...forward. The ones who control this asset will have the best chance of controling the north and to some extent the rest of the development in the ROF.
Time and the perception of loss of control by CLF are on our side...let's use it... the BODs of SPQ and KWG have set it up for checkmate in the next 6 to 12 months at a share price of $1.00 to $2.00 on the high side...maybe more if it drags out longer...keep your eyes peeled for possible suitors in a take-over and buy the rumor...play both if you have to...think strategically as if you were in the CLF boardroom...don't let yourself get wrapped up in the ethics of it...there are no eithics when it comes to their shareholders' interests vs SPQ/KWG shareholders...soon we will be one, and we will be in control 60% by Aug or Sept 2011...60% of a hundred year world class mining operation at billions per year...they know it and we have to keep it in mind also...stay long and strong until the buyers tell you that they are exhausted...that's when the perception of loss of control will be the strongest, and the possibility of aggressive bids.
I'm long and accumulating, based on my perception...good luck to all.