Hi Susan,

Tough day, tough week. It's all about the dollar. 4 up days for the dollar translates to 4 down days for the market - commodities faring worst. I knew this was coming (GDX was clearly starting to roll over last week and a short period of seasonal gold weakness was approaching).

So is the top in, or is this just a correction? A case could be made that the ultimate top is in. Many indicies have broken their uptrend line from March. The rest are on the verge. The dominant pattern is the rising bearish wedge which calls for a drop back to the March lows. Scary stuff, just in time for Halloween!

Despite this, I still think it's a correction because there is a limit to how high the US dollar can go, and all this liquidity will be around for some time. Regarding the scary looking bearish wedges, I'm expecting a rare pattern failure. This is what happened during the last powerful rally in 2003. I'm looking at mid-November for a new up leg to begin. Between now and then it may be difficult to make money. I think it's a mug's game to try and pick winners in a declining market. You can try to go short, but it's tricky, you have to be a nimble trader.

I've sold most of my liquid stocks, but I will hold my microcaps because they have poor liquidity & must be sold into strength. Plus, I think there will be a major rally in PM juniors late in the year, so I'm just holding. And you're right - we would never call you names (well, at least not anything nasty, lol)