Re: bin away a little to long
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 30, 2010 09:52PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
My guess is that your March SPX 1100 put will expire worthless, but if we get a pullback in February (which I expect), you might be able to sell it for a small profit (but remember, when you buy options, time is your enemy - that's why I prefer to sell options rather than buy them).
Perhaps I should give you my reasons for being bullish. Most analysts would argue that we are in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear. This type of bull market generally lasts 2-4 years, and we won't even hit the 2 year mark until next March.
Shorter term: December is usually a positive month. Furthermore, when Sept & Oct are positive, there is usually a correction in November, then a positive December. So far, so good. I think the current correction could end any day now.
Technically, I watch the leading indicies. My favorite is the Venture exchange (considered the riskiest). It lead the way down months before the crash, and bottomed months before the March 09 lows. Today it closed at a new 2 year high - its November correction already over. When investors embrace risk - that`s bullish.
Just a note on Januarys - there`s usually some irrational exuberance in the early part of the month, especially with small cap stocks. I normally sell into this - raise cash, and go on vacation for a few weeks. I plan to do the same thing this year.