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Possibly the best time EVER to buy Juniors.
posted on
May 28, 2008 02:17PM
Junior sector just recovering from deepest over-sold condition since late 2002
CDNX has started outperforming gold over the last few weeks
Previous bottoms in CDNX/GOLD ratio were being characterized by sharp up-moves that lasted for many months
CDNX/GOLD ratio charts leave plenty of room for a giant up-move that could last for more than a year
Sentiment in junior sector has hit an all time low. This is a dream scenario from a contrarian perspective.
The industry is not replacing the reserves it is mining every year
High grade mines are running out of ore.
Even with gold at $1000/oz , it still takes four to seven years to open a mine.
The industry isn't going to be able to respond immediately to higher gold prices.
Reserves will be depleted in less than 10 years at current annual production rates
The industry needs some major new finds desperately. Since 1999 only a very few world class gold deposits have been found.
Majors are forced to acquire juniors because of the need for more reserves
Sentiment in juniors now similar like sentiment gold shares in May 2004 and May 2005
History says the time to buy is when sentiment hits rock bottom
Buying gold shares in May 2004 and May 2005 has paid off tremendously
Buying juniors now will be paying off most likely within 14 months from now
The junior short sellers will be having hard times pushing the sector into even lower extremes.
Short sellers must give up when extremes have reached their limits
As mentioned in point #1, it seems we've reached the extremes to the down-side
The extremes to the down-side open a window of BUY opportunities