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Message: Possibly the best time EVER to buy Juniors.

Possibly the best time EVER to buy Juniors.

posted on May 28, 2008 02:17PM
  • Junior sector just recovering from deepest over-sold condition since late 2002
  • CDNX has started outperforming gold over the last few weeks
  • Previous bottoms in CDNX/GOLD ratio were being characterized by sharp up-moves that lasted for many months
  • CDNX/GOLD ratio charts leave plenty of room for a giant up-move that could last for more than a year
  • Sentiment in junior sector has hit an all time low. This is a dream scenario from a contrarian perspective.
  • The industry is not replacing the reserves it is mining every year
  • High grade mines are running out of ore.
  • Even with gold at $1000/oz , it still takes four to seven years to open a mine.
  • The industry isn't going to be able to respond immediately to higher gold prices.
  • Reserves will be depleted in less than 10 years at current annual production rates
  • The industry needs some major new finds desperately. Since 1999 only a very few world class gold deposits have been found.
  • Majors are forced to acquire juniors because of the need for more reserves
  • Sentiment in juniors now similar like sentiment gold shares in May 2004 and May 2005
  • History says the time to buy is when sentiment hits rock bottom
  • Buying gold shares in May 2004 and May 2005 has paid off tremendously
  • Buying juniors now will be paying off most likely within 14 months from now
  • The junior short sellers will be having hard times pushing the sector into even lower extremes.
  • Short sellers must give up when extremes have reached their limits
  • As mentioned in point #1, it seems we've reached the extremes to the down-side
  • The extremes to the down-side open a window of BUY opportunities
Eric Hommelberg
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