shape of things to come TYHEE
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 14, 2010 01:19PM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
Just spending the day watching my favorite set of economists on you tube and blog sites. And from nowhere, my imagination moved to what things will look like in December.
By December, we will have had a couple of sets of drill results, perhaps a resource update on Clan Lake, a DAR submission, perhaps feed back from GNWT of anything in the DAR that requires more work (and therefore that the bulk of the DAR is sufficient for the EA process), and the Pre Feasability study.
So what type of chart are we looking at? I think that it won't be a steady climb from 20 to $2.00, like R did over the last year or so. The difference is that with Tyhee, we have a company that has two blockages or anvils holding down the share price. The first is that it has been punished for not trying to sell itself as a takeout target, as it's shareholders rights plan and avowed goal of going into production, and the fact that being taken out before having the permits in place would be counter-productive, so that first anvil holding SP down does not gradually go away. It goes away completely when key benchmarks in the EA (acceptance of all or most of the DAR). So this will make a sudden, fundamental re-valuation of the share price. The second anvil is the interference, in my view, of those involved in pushing down the SP every time Tyhee wants to raise money. These guys are doing it for a purpose, such as to try to limit Tyhee's options, or to ensure that they make more when they do a financing with Tyhee. But the closer Tyhee gets to getting respect and attention in the market place, the more dangerous this behavior is for them. So this second anvil, the bullying of Tyhee by financiers or agents thereof (such as Cormark), also should result in a re-calibration of Tyhee's share price from an aritificilaly depressed level, like the $20/oz valuation currently, to a more suitable $100/oz valuation. When Tyhee had actual reserves of 1 million ounces (Pre Feas), that is a market cap over $100 million.
So the shape of things to come, with the drag effects of the above two anvils likely to be cut off by about december, should be two short, sharp corrections. Between these, I would expect to see a larger financing, as Romarco did twice or more as share price appreciation allowed financing with less dilution.
So imagine the shape to be a few little steps up between now and July, then one big step (say to 45 cents), then a smaller step with the August or so financing at 40 to 50 cents, then a big step up in December.
All going into a January/Feb 2011 reality where financing the construction of the mine, while not formally with permit in hand, is certainly going to be the focus of the company's attention for 2011. Long lead-time purchases negotiated summer of 2011, permit to come in 2011, and decision & financing to become finalized mid to late 2011. Construction to start in 2012.
But between today and December 2010, it'll be those two sudden jumps.
The bad news, for me personally, is I will only have one of two large windfalls to invest in Tyhee. I sure hope I can maximize my shareholdings before the first ANVIL drops.
After that, Tyhee will be the road-runner, and Cormark types will be coyote, raod kill, squashed under the very ACME anvil they had been targeting Tyhee with!
Excited? Yes, I am. Frustrated with waiting SOO long. yes I am, but I can see the early light of dawn on the horizon (or any other hopeful metaphor you like).
SKELEG