Re: Contrarian indicator
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 21, 2010 09:30PM
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I cannot answer the "who?"
I do not follow Frank Barberra but I do remember that he called "to the day" the bottom of the gold market in the summer of 2006 at around $550. It was from there that gold started a run (with minor corrections) which ended with a parabolic rise to $1000/oz.
In expecting a huge wave C down he assumes that that overpricing in stocks (or "deflationary tendencies") will push stock prices down. That is a hard call for anyone to make with any certainty. The government prints money and pushes it into the system (highly inflationary) to fight the pressures he sees coming against the stocks. The winner is yet to be determined. It hasn't gotten so far out of whack that the government can't still push the prices wherever the President's Working Group on Financial Markets wants them.
The government does not want stocks to crash. It might be the straw that breaks the camel's back. In using QE and manipulating the markets they have been so far successful in keeping the lead balloon floating. If they print and inject too much the balloon might fool many and soar. If one didn't know what happened to the purchasing power of the Zimbabwe dollar and were just looking at stock charts it would have looked like one of the best markets in history. The U.S. is in a similar situation but in its earlier stages. Cut off the upward push and it will crash like a an uninflated lead ball; go too far and it could float away to the heavens like Zimbabwe. Charts are useless in such a situation. Fundamentals aren't much better because it is a casino; not a market.
Gold on the other hand, though manipulated, has stronger fundamentals than the manipulation which will ultimately fail. It's future is dependent on currency debasement which has already taken place and will continue to take place. One can invest with confidence that when all the dust settles the investment will have been successful and protected one's purchasing power.
If it makes us wealthier in the process, so much the better.
P.