GWTW / Hubert's link re tyhee valuation
posted on
Apr 17, 2010 12:34PM
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Once again, GWTW's blog on tyhee has some valuable material on it.
He posts today a link to the valuation gap between juniors and producers. He says he's asked the guy to plug tyhee into it. But one can do this on their own by calculating the average ore value vs the market cap per ounce of gold. Then compare to some of the producers posted.
Depending on how you do this, and if the definition of ore value is produced ounces or gross, in either case, tyhee appears off the charts to the high left corner, somewhere in the orbit of SGR (off the chart! on the vertical axis, ore value per tonne).
http://www.goldminerpulse.com/gold-explorer-producer-valuation.php
Could someone, GWTW or other, confirm that an appropriate number for Tyhee would be between 200 and 350 on the vertical axis, and about $33 on the horizontal?
Also, once more ounces are added at about the same grade (based on cutoff anyhow), tyhee would move to the right only sligtly, even when it doubles to 50cents and hits that all important market cap of $100 million.
If so, once in production, or valued for production imminent based on when Tyhee has permit, financing and is in the preconstruction phase, such as in March, 2012, tyhee would have to increase 12 or 13 fold to intersect the gold producer valuation.
Put another way, to hit that line from where Tyhee is now, tyhee woudl have to be valued at more than $700 million, and once into the producer side, on the order of AEM but higher grade so up to the right corner, and with a modest increase in ounces of RESERVES to say 2.5 million by say 2012, tyhee would be valued at $1 billion. OR could get there faster by ore value increasing due to POG reaching say $1500 while costs only hit say $600 / ounce (or much less), also intersecting $1 billion valuation at that time.
It also reveals, according to my read, that tyhee will be a relatively higher grade producer, and this is consistent with the concept of the pit plus underground strategy, where the average ore yield will be higher than those enormous bulk tonnage projects at 0.5 g/t. Tyhee will have flexibility to feed in the open pit ore, or more of the underground ore, depending on economic conditions and long term growth (underground) sequencing.
I like this chart.... Thanks GWTW / Hubert.
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This is the year Tyhee become respected, kind of like when a girl child goes away for a few years to mature in some distant forgotten school, and comes back a beautiful woman with suddenly faced by many many suitors!
SKELEG