TYHEE GOLD CORP

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Message: Re: crapshoot
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Apr 23, 2010 12:38AM
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Apr 23, 2010 09:37AM
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Apr 23, 2010 09:42AM
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Apr 23, 2010 09:42AM

Apr 23, 2010 10:18AM
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Apr 23, 2010 10:50AM

Apr 23, 2010 11:12AM
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Apr 23, 2010 12:15PM

CJJ,

Thanks for this clarification. I do not think we have a path ahead of us such that nothing can go wrong. Although I'm no expert at mining, I have followed enough companies through the development stage over the last several years to see that, if anything, things going according to plan is generally the exception and not the rule itself. I have watched Minefinders have 1-2 years worth of delays getting to commercial production due to local protesters, Aquiline Resources take the poison pill and sell itself for 2/3 of its 2008 valuation, and Seabridge Gold release a prefeasibility study that proves up 30 million ounces of P&P reserves yet have no significant increase in share price. I think that I have come to accept that setbacks are the name of the game.

So, I do think and expect that things will go "wrong" from that standpoint. What I do not expect nor make investment decisions based off is a disaster. If, for some strange reason the PFS study reveals we have 2 million ounces of tungsten in the ground and no gold, well, that is something I will not be prepared for. I will lose. But I won't entertain that thought, as the chances are negligable. What is more probable is we get something in between of what we hope for and reality.

Yet, from a risk to reward standpoint, I don't see how this is not a favorable situation. With our resource being valued at $25/ounce, how much downside is there? The market is currently pricing in no buyout and no production. It is essentially pricing in no success. I believe there is some level of success ahead, certainly more than is being priced in right now. If there is 50% downside risk here (which, IMO, would be the market pricing in near bankruptcy), and 1000% of upside potential over the next several years as resources become reserves and those reserves become mined in some way, I like those odds.

Yes, I agree with you it is frustrating to watch the market disrespect our company. I just wouldn't take that out on management or drill results, at least not now.

In 2004, I was fully concinced that there was an epic US housing bubble of generational proportions and that the vast majority of the country was caught up in a mass hysteria. I debated friends who went out and bought condos, read the local newspaper "reports" on the strong real estate market with disgust, and successfullly convinced my parents to sell their best "investment" (the house I grew up in), all while watching home valued increase exponentially for 3 more years. In 2007-2008 the majority finally caught drift of what I knew to be correct. It was frustrating during those years, but the truth and the market will win out eventually. I believe Tyhee's valuation to be a similar scenario in the making-- timing, not direction, being the unknown variable.

Hysteria


Apr 23, 2010 03:18PM

Apr 23, 2010 04:24PM
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