How High Will TDC Go? - SKELEG's 10 positive points for the next 12 months
posted on
Apr 25, 2010 10:50AM
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Baires,
I would use slightly different numbers, but agree that $1.00 this year is quite possible.
Using your aircraft analogy, let's remember it also helps if there is a nice wind coming down the runway. This wind under our wings is the price of gold. So my 10 points along the same lines as yours, also very speculative and opinion based, and in chronological order are:
1. Pre Feas will be very positive. However, it will still have to be based on substantiated numbers from a revised NI43101 report. This will be based on a production rate of at least 180,000 oz / year and a 8+ year mine life for production based on RESERVES of 1.4+ million ounces. However, the Pre Feas should also talk about the manner in which additional resources will be brought in. While DW can't make predictions, the mine plan could include some thought or provision for the additional tonnage to be brought in, such as to say that "approval will be sought to add more tonnage...blah blah.. with tailings piled in the stopes and tunnels once WInter lake tailings deposit is full...blah blah". I think we can expect that it is very likely there are millions of ounces under the known deposits and other discoveries to be made and expanded during the life of the mine. So the numbers from the pre feas could be expanded in our minds to cover a 20 year mine life, with increased production to the 250,000 once range not far down the road, and be applied to actual production over the life of the mine of several millions of ounces of gold. In my mind, somewhere between 5 and 10 million. However, I think the pre feas will have a higher price for production, over $400 to $450 per ounce. However, the POG forecasest / or business cases should be calculated for POGs levels such as $800, $1000, $1200 and $1500. We can fantasize about $2000 for 5 or so years from now.... But we can use $1200 for our baseline hopes. Once in prouduction, with $750 earned per ounce over 350 millionshares, with PE of 25 would be a staggering share price of $ 9.64 one day...
2. Financing. I don't expect them to need $10 million raised this year. I would rather prefer to see no more than $5 million rased later this year, to take the EA process to next summer and to allow for steady drilling with 3 or 4 rigs. But at a share price passing thorugh 40 to 60 cents when the next large financing occurs would be nice to see. Why raise more money than is needed this year? Larger financing when share price is over $1.00 would be better, once the bulk of these 10 items have come to pass. Financing becoming easier, however, is the mantra.
3. Drill Results at Clan Lake show some expansion of the main zone, but dont' expect any nock out blows. There could also be some exploration of other targets that so far have only been surface mapped. Would be great to see one of these other targets demonstrated to have something worth drilling off. Perhaps next winter, it would be nice to see a few deep drills cut into the presumed gold zone under the known areas of Bruce / Ormsby to show more than the current (one) intersection deep under the resource. Exploration never stops, but getting the mine built and planning for operations at depth should be prominent.
4. A deal on electrical power gets flushed out with NWT Power Corp. This would confirm whatever is said in the Pre Feas, and be very good for market respect for Tyhee's plan.
5. Market Cap reaches and stays above $100 million, as share price progresses through 45 cents and is headed much, much higher.
6. Tyhee submits the DAR by December. Some initial feedback on completeness or other indications that it is comprehensive and addresses what was required in the scoping studies. If any follow-on issues are identified, they are quickly attacked by Tyhee's consultants/subcontractors, and the issuance of the permit later in 2012 is that much closer.
7. Some public, regulatory announcement of Tyhee's EA process. I believe that having ONE public hearing would be good for tyhee, as it gets the local economy, with all of it's gold mining experience and pro-mining sentiment, engaged in supporting the project. Local investors, many who already have positions in Tyhee, confirm the local reality of the project by investing more in Tyhee. Tyhee becomes the talk fo the town, and DW is INVITED onto BNN. WE learn of the dates, and tune in to watch!
8. Tyhee opens an office in YK in early 2011. Tyhee also has a promient display or presentation at the gold conferences, Roundup and PDAC 2011. I fly out to PDAC for the first time, just to watch and report....
9. Analyists reports on Tyhee, with multiple dollar share price projections by end of 2011. Many of these sharks switch from being parasites who write about companies who pay them, to being investor opportunists who scoop up as much TDC as they can, and then promote awareness of Tyhee for their own benefit, and the benfit of their subscribers. Tyhee is not omittied from lists of excellent juniors / developers.
10. Tyhee plans for the listing to evolve onto the TSX. This could come with a new name that highlights that it's in Yellowknife and involves GOLD. YELLOWKNIFE GOLD COPR? This could be part of a joint venture, even if only a 10 or 12 % investment (taster) by a larger partner on the scale of AEM would be a very good relationship to see emerge. Or it could be Tyhee going it alone and forming a new company wholly owned by TDC shareholders, which owns the claims that would feed the mill at Ormsby, and still allow TDC to explore other locatiosn in the Yellowknife region. This also allows Tyhee to cast an eye on other prospective reagions in Canada, perhaps eastern Canada
So which of my 10 points is not a possibility for the next 12 months?
What will the share price be one year from now? My view is north of $2.00. Yellowknife is far north...
Lots of reasons to believe that Tyhee will be a gold medalist this year!
SKELEG