Expectation setting
posted on
Nov 20, 2014 10:39PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
i think that it is a bit irresponsible, and possibly harmful to set lofty expectations such as a 100% IRR for the upcoming PEA. i can't remember any projects of this size coming in with that kind of number. then again imo, this is a very special project, and i think it's best to let the company do their job, which at this time is partially comprised of putting out a PEA.
to set that number in people's minds is not helpful imo.
i'd be pretty much over the moon with a number half that size. that would have major miners all over them like flies on recently dropped cow dung.
i wonder if those putting out numbers close to 100% actually understand all the factors involved in calculating the IRR.
Here's an example from a quick google search...
http://www.miningman.com/Blog/April-2010/Internal-Rate-of-Return-IRR-Mining-Finance-Basics4
as far as predicting a selling price for Albany graphite goes, not enough info out there other than the 3rd party number of $8500 per tonne accepted by the regulators for the initial 43-101 resource estimate. that said, i couldn't have hoped for a better guy than Chahar to come to them to offer his services, and he brought on board his long time colleague, Yamashita, to cover the customers in Asia. i don't see any other graphite companies with that kind of direct, synthetic market sales penetration experience on board.
sure the company was lucky to find this graphite deposit while drilling for base metals and PGM's, but the team building post discovery has been incredible, and a testament to the quality of the deposit by people far better placed to judge it than us retailers.
i will also highly commend them for the very frugal spending that has brought us so far on the meagre spoils of the IPO and warrants from almost 4 years ago http://www.zenyatta.ca/article/press-release-152.asp
as far as news flow goes, disappointing, but i'd have handled it the same way myself after all the various public assaults on Zenyatta from streetsweeper, the 43-101 buy, no wait, sell fiasco, SH and comments from the likes of Fulp and flake execs. the news vaccum has allowed naysayers to capitalize on the lack of news and work the psychology of the bullboards. good for them, but it does not impact my decision making. only DD can do that.
i have some extensive large tech company experience with NDA's from my past, and in this space, where each end user has their own very specific formulae for graphitic products, and where competitive trade secrets are closely guarded, your best approach is to be seen as a tightly sealed vault who can honor those contracts and protect those who signed NDA's with you.
so if i was to give out advice, and i'm just another shareholder like the rest of you, it would be to not set lofty expectations and to certainly not wear your emotions on your sleeves, as the market will find a way to rob it's feedstock, the retail investor, if you give it the info needed to do so. hard to screw people when you don't know what they are thinking.