If I may weigh in here on valuing Zen-3694...

If we look at the Trodelvy purchase by Gilead, Gilead paid $21B for a successful phase 3 TNBC result which they expect to be an approved therapy.  Estimated gross annual revenue is $4.7B.  Trodelvy is also expected to grow into a therapy for ER & HER- breast cancers so Gilead paid for an imminent metastic TNBC drug and future potential in other breast cancers.

Here is an excerpt from the Fiercepharma story linked below

https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/billion-dollar-trodelvy-question-you-all-fear-for-gilead-it-s-been-answered-at-esmo

"Data from the phase 3 Ascent trial showed that Trodelvy cut the risk of death by 52% among metastatic triple-negative breast cancer patients who had previously failed on at least two chemo regimens. The anti-TROP-2 drug helped patients live a median 12.1 months, versus 6.7 months for the chemo group.

The expert, describing the effect as “striking,” noted that the benefit is unusually positive and has therefore set Trodelvy as the new standard in later-line mTNBC."

Don's slide 11 makes direct comparison between Trodelvy and ZEN-3694.  So far, the results are better than the latest standard of care which is Trodelvy.  If ZEN-3694's safety profile is better than Trodelvy's then we may have the next standard of care for metastic TNBC.  To prove it, we need the same numbers across ever larger sample sizes.  Phase 2a is on now, results due in Q2.  If the numbers are good we move to phase 2b/3.

In the mean time, what is ZEN-3694 worth?

• mTNBC - Phase 2a
• mCRPC - Phase 2b/3 using Newsoara's schedule
• mCRPC - Phase 2 with Merck's Keytruda + Enzalutamide + ZEN-3694
• Resistant Overian Cancer - NCI study using Bristol Myers Squibb's nivolumab (Opdivo) & ipilimumab (Yervoy).  Used in combo and generated $8B in revenue for BMS in 2018.  IN 2020, sales growth has stalled with the growth of competitors like Keytruda.

In my opinion and I'm no expert in anything pharma,

Success (meet primary endpoints in a phase 3 trial) in any one of these cancer therapies is a $5-10B market cap minimum .

Success in one + a pipeline full of future therapies.... $10-20B.

Now we don't have either of the above so how much do we discount those estimates?  I'm conservative so I go with 90% discount.

Low case - $500M (~$3/share)

High case - $2B (~$13/share)

The discount factor decreases as the science is proven in further trials.  With the current volume of Phase 2 + trials advancing, I don't think a $1B valuation is too big a stretch right now.

Don, if you're reading this... lets wrap this thing up in the next 3 years, I'd like to retire, buy a boat a float around in the Bahamas for awhile.  I'm good with $5B

Good luck all, Happy holidays