4 Year Share Price Projection
posted on
Jan 30, 2008 10:17AM
Based on the discussion from many of the knowledgeable individuals on this board related to the patent infringement process, I thought a share price projestion woulkd stimulate an interesting side issue.
Share Price Projection – 4 Year Estimate
Factors used in developing the formula
1) Develop a regression analysis range of the current 20 Billion dollar Revenue estimate for a 5 year history
2) Project a range for the future revenue stream based on the 20 billion base for 4-5 successive years
3) Develop a range of lawsuits filed over the 4 year timeframe
4) Use various levels of settlement success
5) Calculate average Revenue per company
6) Develop a range of settlement percent based on Revenue
Using the Quadratic Equation formula, the following minimum/maximum share price has been calculated over a four year time frame beginning with time “X”.
1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year
$1.3969 $3.1938 $4.1906 $4.7875
$4.1906 $9.58.13 $12.5719 $14.3625
Other opinions would be interesting.
The variables used in the calculations were based on what I see as events happen over the specified time frame. They represent my best estimate and are only my opinion. T
The method utilized a HI/LO situation for each of the variables used to establish a reasonable range in the formula.
I realize it is far to soon to conjure up these values, but the exercise shows a favorable condition assuming we will see added finings and positive results.