Does Apple Have an iDud on Its Hands?

ANALYSIS

(Jan. 29) -- Normally, when Steve Jobs appears on stage, techies swoon. And there was certainly some of that when Jobs unveiled the iPad on Wednesday.

"I'm positively giddy," says Slate writer Farhad Manjoo. And Gizmodo tech editor Joel Johnson enthused that "Only way to interpret the launch of the iPad? Apple has declared the PC dead."

But something unusual has emerged in what has been called the Jobs Reality Distortion Field. Tech writers are starting to rebel against the iPad -- a sign that one of the most-loved consumer technology brands may have a significant iDud on its hands.

As New York magazine notes in its roundup of coverage: "the iPad backlash is in full swing," and "it seems everyone's eager to toss a little haterade Apple's way."

Frankly, it does seem unclear just how many people really want (let alone need) a phone-laptop hybrid without the advantages of either.

Start with its size. It's 9.7 inches diagonally and weighs 1.5 pounds. That's light by laptop standards, but much more cumbersome than a mobile phone. But it's not a phone; you can't make calls on it unless you use an Internet service such as Skype. And you can't stick it in your pocket or take it jogging. So, like a laptop or e-reader device like the Kindle, it'll require a case. But since there's no conventional keyboard attached -- what you get is a larger version of the iPhone's onscreen interface -- it's unlikely anyone will type reports or anything of length on the device.

Then there's the lack of what have become widely accepted features.

There's no multitasking. "Are you saying I can't listen to Pandora while writing a document? I can't have my Twitter app open at the same time as my browser? I can't have AIM open at the same time as my email? Are you kidding me? This alone guarantees that I will not buy this product," Gizmodo's Adam Frucci writes.

There's also no Adobe Flash support, so the only way to watch streaming movies is on YouTube, not on Hulu or Netflix. And there are no ports to hook up other devices.

There's no camera. No GPS on the base model. It's not compatible with wide-screen movies. It only runs optimally using AT&T.

"With only one connector port and a headphone jack, the iPad is a connectivity nightmare, since you'll have to buy adapters for everything from USB to SD cards. Not to mention that you're restricted to a wireless-only connection without an Ethernet port," Geeksugar complains.

All in all, that's a lot of deficiencies for a toy that costs at least $499 and as much as $829, not including a data plan that can run an additional $360 per year.

Which may explain why estimates for first-year sales of the iPad range widely, from 1 million to 5 million -- in other words, anything from a bust to a great success.

Of course, there are no shortage of Apple defenders. "[R]emember how silly you all looked when you all predicted the iPhone's demise in that period before it went on sale," The New York Times' David Pogue writes. "Like the iPhone, the iPad is really a vessel, a tool, a 1.5-pound sack of potential. It may become many things."

As Slate's media critic Jack Shafer points out, Apple has had its share of flops in the past. "If the press corps possessed any institutional memory, it would recall the introduction of the Apple III+, the Lisa, the Macintosh Portable, the Mac TV, the Newton, the Apple G4 Cube, and eWorld. All were greeted with great press fanfare before falling off the edge of the world."

Shafer is right, except for the fact that few companies have had as long a winning streak as Apple has in recent years, which would make the iPad a bigger problem for Apple should it flop.

Of course, the jury is out on that until April, then the iPad actually hits the stores. At which point Jobs had better hope consumers haven't fallen out of love with Apple, too.